World Cup Quarter-Finalists: Data-Driven Insights Ahead of the Semi-Finals

The tournament has entered the quarter-final stage, leaving eight teams in contention. Opta’s statistical models rank the favourites to reach the last four as France, Spain, Argentina and England, while each side shows at least one positive metric from the competition so far. The analysis presented here draws exclusively from Opta data compiled during the first five matches of the World Cup.

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• France – Carries ending with shots: 33 carries, highlighting the squad’s ability to convert long runs into shooting opportunities.

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• Morocco – Sprints per kilometre covered: 0.75 sprints km?¹, the highest average among the quarter-finalists, suggesting intense physical output.

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• Spain – Expected goals conceded: 1.49 xG, indicating a defence comparable to their Euro 2012 possession levels.

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• Belgium – High-turnover shots: 15 shots generated from high-turnover sequences, the most of any team, with four goals arising from those chances.

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• Norway – Expected-goals-per-shot average: 0.17 xG per shot, the highest quality of chance conversion recorded across Europe’s top five leagues last season.

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• England – Big chances: 23 big chances, the most of any side; six shots against Mexico produced five on-target attempts and three goals.

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• Argentina – Counter-attack, set-piece and penalty goals: 7 goals across three categories, underscoring a varied attacking profile.

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• Switzerland – Direct speed: 1.77 m s?¹, the fastest ball-movement metric among the quarter-finalists.

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France’s high volume of shot-ending carries may pressure opponents with sustained attacks, while Morocco’s sprint intensity could offset that pressure through rapid transitions. Spain’s low expected-goals-against figure suggests a resilient backline, yet a high turnover rate could expose them to Belgium’s efficient shot creation. Norway’s superior xG-per-shot efficiency indicates that even limited shooting can be threatening. England’s abundance of big chances points to a potent offense that must improve conversion to progress. Argentina’s multi-faceted scoring avenues make them adaptable against any defensive setup, whereas Switzerland’s rapid ball progression will require disciplined defending to prevent quick strikes.

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All metrics derive from a five-match sample, a small dataset that may not fully capture team form or tactical adjustments. Opta’s definitions—such as “big chances” or “direct speed”—are proprietary, and the analysis does not account for injuries, weather conditions, or psychological factors that could influence future performances.

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