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NOAA: 81% Likelihood of Record-Strong El Niño Impacts Winters

7/10/2026

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Summary

Story summary

NOAA predicts the current El Niño could rank among the strongest since 1950 and says it has an 81 % chance of becoming very strong by fall.
Scientists note that ocean temperatures driving the event are at or near record highs.
The strengthening El Niño raises chances of wetter winters in the southern United States, drier conditions in the north, and leads Colorado State University to cut its Atlantic hurricane forecast, expecting activity.

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Story summary

NOAA predicts the current El Niño could rank among the strongest since 1950 and says it has an 81 % chance of becoming very strong by fall.
Scientists note that ocean temperatures driving the event are at or near record highs.
The strengthening El Niño raises chances of wetter winters in the southern United States, drier conditions in the north, and leads Colorado State University to cut its Atlantic hurricane forecast, expecting activity.