USDA Slashes Late-June Beef Export Numbers Amid Data-Quality Concerns

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced on July 9 that exporters sold a net 12,064 metric tons of U.S. beef in the week ending June 25, a 90 percent reduction from the 126,062 metric tons reported a week earlier. The revision also cut previously reported record shipments to Chile (from 38,434 t to 367 t) and Italy (from 32,274 t to 350 t), and lowered figures for 14 other countries.

Reuters

In the first half of 2026, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service lost roughly 21 percent of its workforce, a decline linked to broader staffing reductions under the Trump administration. Earlier this year the agency launched a new export-sales reporting system after a failed 2022 rollout delayed reports for three weeks. Exporters are required to report sales to the USDA in the week they occur, but the agency later said the June data had been “reported in error” without further detail.

Reuters

The USDA explained that the original figures were based on “incorrect beef export sales data” published on July 2. It added that the Export Sales Reporting team had “contacted the exporting company and the ESR team confirmed that the quantities are correct and were reported as MTs.” On Thursday, USDA officials simply noted the exports had been “reported in error,” offering no additional explanation.

ReutersSouth China Morning Post

Traders and analysts quickly dismissed the initial surge as implausible, noting the unusually large shipments to markets that had never bought such volumes. Austin Schroeder of Brugler Marketing & Management questioned the agency’s oversight, while Mike Castle of StoneX said the magnitude of the correction was far beyond what “minor corrections” from the new reporting system should produce. The episode has deepened skepticism toward USDA trade data, already strained by previous underestimates of corn acreage and delayed trade-deficit reports.

South China Morning Post

• “Should the USDA have caught it? Probably,” — Austin Schroeder, Commodity Analyst, Brugler Marketing & Management

Reuters

• “We're priced out of the world market to a certain extent,” — Austin Schroeder, Commodity Analyst, Brugler Marketing & Management

Reuters

• “It wouldn't be a shock to see some minor corrections following their switch to the new reporting system in March, but nowhere near this volume," Mike Castle, senior commodities economist for consultancy StoneX, said last week.” — Mike Castle, Senior Commodities Economist, StoneX

Reuters

• “As part of the Export Sales Reporting team's data review of weekly submissions, the exporting company was contacted and the ESR team confirmed that the quantities are correct and were reported as MTs," USDA said on July 2, using an abbreviation for metric tons.” — USDA (July 2 statement)

Reuters