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German Study Warns AMOC Collapse Risk Reaches 100% by 2100

7/10/2026

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Summary

Story summary

German scientists posted a preprint warning the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could collapse.
Their model gives a 10% collapse chance and 80% by 2100 under worst emissions.
If emissions peak in 2025, risk is 10%, 23% with melt, and 100% by century’s end.
April research predicts a 43%-58% slowdown by 2100, about 60% stronger than model estimates, while a June study found no collapse evidence but urged rapid cuts.

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Story summary

German scientists posted a preprint warning the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could collapse.
Their model gives a 10% collapse chance and 80% by 2100 under worst emissions.
If emissions peak in 2025, risk is 10%, 23% with melt, and 100% by century’s end.
April research predicts a 43%-58% slowdown by 2100, about 60% stronger than model estimates, while a June study found no collapse evidence but urged rapid cuts.