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IEA Forecasts First Global Oil Demand Drop Since 2020

7/10/2026

Summary

Story summary

IEA expects global oil demand to drop by about 1 million barrels per day in 2026, the first decline since 2020.
Demand fell to 97.9 million barrels per day in May, a 5.3 million-barrel-per-day year-on-year decrease.
A mid-June U.S.–Iran framework reopened the Strait of Hormuz, letting Gulf shipments rise by roughly 3.5 million barrels per day.
IEA lifted its 2026 supply forecast to 102.6 million barrels per day, 210,000 barrels higher, while noting security risks.

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Story summary

IEA expects global oil demand to drop by about 1 million barrels per day in 2026, the first decline since 2020.
Demand fell to 97.9 million barrels per day in May, a 5.3 million-barrel-per-day year-on-year decrease.
A mid-June U.S.–Iran framework reopened the Strait of Hormuz, letting Gulf shipments rise by roughly 3.5 million barrels per day.
IEA lifted its 2026 supply forecast to 102.6 million barrels per day, 210,000 barrels higher, while noting security risks.