Full Breakdown
BYU Cougars Poised for a 2026 Big 12 Title Run
7/10/2026, 10:46:05 PM
Season Overview & FPI Projections
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) released its preseason rankings for the 2026 college-football season, placing the BYU Cougars at No. 20 nationally with an initial rating of 13.1. The model projects the Cougars to win 8.5 games, favoring them in 11 of 12 scheduled contests. The sole game where BYU is an underdog is the October 17 home matchup against Notre Dame, for which FPI assigns a 24 % win probability.
The probability ladder for total wins shows a 98.9 % chance of at least six victories, 83.0 % for eight or more, and a 32.1 % chance of reaching the “special season” benchmark of ten wins. An undefeated season is estimated at 1.3 %.
Preseason Coaches Poll Surprise
During the Big 12 media days in Frisco, Texas, a poll of league coaches conducted by On3 named BYU the preseason favorite to capture the conference title—an unexpected outcome given Texas Tech’s historical dominance. The voting “yielded a surprising result: BYU, not Texas Tech, is the preseason favorite among Big 12 coaches to win the league in 2026.”
Key Players Returning
The Cougars return several impact players:
- Bear Bachmeier – senior quarterback who posted 3,033 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and 667 rushing yards as a true freshman.
- LJ Martin – senior running back, last season’s conference-leading rusher with 1,305 yards, 12 touchdowns and 36 receptions; also the preseason Offensive Player of the Year.
- Faletau Satuala – safety anchoring a defense that retained most starters.
- Cade Uluave – transfer linebacker from California who recorded 100 tackles in 2025 and is expected to start immediately.
Schedule Difficulty & Notable Matchups
BYU’s 2026 slate blends non-conference and conference challenges. Non-conference games include an FCS opponent (Utah Tech), a road contest at Colorado State, and a home game versus top-10-projected Notre Dame. Within the Big 12, BYU faces four of the conference’s projected top-eight teams, with its toughest league tests identified as Utah (Nov. 7) and TCU (Oct. 3).
ESPN’s FPI ranks the Cougars’ schedule as the 55th-toughest out of 138 FBS programs and the ninth-toughest among the 16 Big 12 teams, placing BYU in the national top half for schedule strength.
Championship & Playoff Odds
FPI assigns BYU a 16.5 % chance to win the Big 12, second only to Texas Tech’s 45.9 % likelihood. The model gives BYU a 25.7 % probability of earning a College Football Playoff berth, the second-best odds in the conference.
Criticism & Counterpoints
Despite the coaches poll favoring BYU, FPI still lists Texas Tech as the strong favorite for the league title and the only team with a higher conference-win probability. Moreover, BYU’s sole underdog status against Notre Dame underscores the difficulty of securing ten wins, especially given the absence of Texas Tech and Houston from the schedule—teams many analysts view as key hurdles to a championship.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The primary discrepancy lies between the coaches poll (BYU as preseason favorite) and FPI’s statistical outlook (Texas Tech favored for the title, BYU at 16.5 %). No source provides a definitive explanation for this divergence, leaving uncertainty about how coaches’ qualitative assessments align with the model’s quantitative projections.
What’s Next
- Sep. 5 – Season opener at home vs. Utah Tech.
- Oct. 17 – Home game against Notre Dame, a potential CFP-impacting contest.
- Nov. 7 – Road showdown at Utah, highlighted as a pivotal conference test.
The Cougars enter 2026 with high expectations, a solid core of returning talent, and a schedule that promises both opportunities and obstacles on the path to a possible Big 12 championship and playoff appearance.
