Full Breakdown
Eisenkot’s Yashar Party Tops Polls, Challenging Netanyahu’s Likud
7/11/2026, 12:07:30 AM
Core Event: Yashar Overtakes Likud in the Latest Seat Projections
A Channel 13 poll released in late June shows Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party leading Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud for the first time. The poll gives Yashar 22 seats, up two from the previous survey, while Likud remains at 21 seats. A separate Channel 13 scenario published in early July projects Yashar at 23 mandates and Likud at 22 if elections were held on July 8. In both versions Yashar edges ahead of Likud by a single seat.
Background & Context: A Fragmented Knesset on the Verge of Dissolution
The poll arrives as the current coalition races to pass legislation before the Knesset’s scheduled dissolution. Earlier this year, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties into “Together,” which now trails Yashar with 15 seats in the July 8 projection. Smaller parties such as the Religious Zionist Party, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Otzma Yehudit each sit at 8 seats, while the Arab bloc holds 11 seats. The new alliance of Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel (the “Yesodot” party) failed to cross the 3.25 % electoral threshold in all surveys.
Data & Statistics: Suitability Ratings and Coalition Math
- Suitability for prime minister: Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 48 % to 40 % in the poll’s suitability question; a separate graphic lists 46 % to 36 %.
- Potential governing blocs: If the Tropper-Hendel party joins the Zionist opposition, the combined bloc would reach the 61-seat majority required to form a government. An Eisenkot-led merger of Yashar and Together would yield 39 seats, while an Eisenkot-led Yashar-Together list would command 59 seats for the opposition and 46 for Netanyahu’s coalition.
Official Statements & Responses
Netanyahu has signaled a desire to reshape Likud’s candidate slate, demanding the right to place 10 reserved spots—including four of the first eight slots after himself and five additional positions between the tenth and thirtieth places. Likud sources say the prime minister aims to bring in popular figures from outside the party and push some incumbents lower on the list.
Eisenkot, meanwhile, announced the addition of former Shin Bet and Mossad operative Dvora Sharifian Baker to Yashar’s candidate list, underscoring the party’s effort to broaden its security credentials.
Criticism & Opposition
Long-standing Likud stalwarts have voiced concern that Netanyahu’s proposed list changes could alienate core supporters and undermine internal party democracy. Analysts note that the repeated failure of centrist newcomers—such as the Tropper-Hendel alliance and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White—to clear the threshold reflects voter fatigue with fragmented centrist offerings.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The polls differ on Yashar’s exact seat count (22 in the June 24 release, 23 in the July 8 projection) and on Likud’s standing (21 versus 22). Suitability percentages also vary (48 % vs 40 % versus 46 % vs 36 %). No direct quotations from Eisenkot or Netanyahu appear in the source material, limiting insight into their personal rhetoric.
Why It Matters / Impact
Even at their projected heights, neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the Zionist opposition reaches the 61-seat threshold on its own, making coalition negotiations pivotal. The narrow lead of Yashar suggests a potential realignment of Israeli politics, with Eisenkot emerging as the primary challenger to Netanyahu’s long-standing dominance. The outcome will influence policy directions on security, the ultra-Orthodox draft law, and the composition of future government ministries.
What’s Next
The next scheduled election date is July 8, 2026. Parties are expected to finalize candidate lists in the coming weeks, and discussions about possible mergers—particularly involving Yashar, Together, and the Tropper-Hendel alliance—are likely to intensify as both blocs seek the 61-seat majority needed to govern.