Putin’s Push for Kostiantynivka: A Stalled Assault on Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt”

Kostiantynivka, a city of roughly 66,000 residents in Donetsk region, has become the focal point of Russia’s 2024 offensive. Fighting on its outskirts began in October, and Moscow has now deployed thousands of troops for a renewed urban assault. The city sits on Ukraine’s “fortress belt” that links Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk; control of Kostiantynivka would open a route toward those larger strongholds.

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President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly described Kostiantynivka as “the key to liberating the entire territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic.” Capturing the city would advance Russia’s stated political goal of fully annexing Donetsk. Yet the ground offensive is progressing at an average of 50 metres per day around Kostiantynivka and 90 metres near Sloviansk, rates the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) calls “among the slowest rates of advance in any war over the last century.” UK intelligence estimates Russian casualties at 1.3 million since the invasion began, with monthly loss rates of 30,000-34,000 now exceeding recruitment of 27,000. Advanced drones and glide-bombs continue to inflict civilian damage, while Ukrainian forces rely on underground basements and limited Russian infiltrators to hold the line.

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In a call with U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin claimed Russia already holds Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the claim as “another Russian lie, an attempt to generate some kind of a news story.” The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) labeled the claim “contrary to all available evidence,” and the Ukraine-based DeepState group reported that the city’s defenses remain intact. CSIS provided the advance-rate data, and UK intelligence supplied the casualty figures.

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Ukrainian analyst Vladyslav Urubkov (Come Back Alive Foundation) warned that loss of Kostiantynivka would endanger Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. ISW analyst Grace Mappes said Russian footage of “troops raising a flag” was likely AI-altered, part of a “targeted information campaign” aimed at impressing President Trump. Both analysts stress that Russian forces lack the maneuver-warfare capability needed to break through the fortified belt, and many expect the city could fall by late summer despite fierce resistance.

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• “This is probably the hottest point in the whole front line,” — Vladyslav Urubkov, military division lead, Come Back Alive Foundation

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• “Donetsk region is the number one political goal for Russia, and they will, as we see, lay everything on the table to reach that goal, despite everything, despite all the losses,” — Vladyslav Urubkov

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• “I know of about 150 Russians inside the city,” — Vladyslav Urubkov

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• “These are among the slowest rates of advance in any war over the last century,” — CSIS assessment

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• “Russian forces are unlikely to make an operational breakthrough against the rest of Ukraine’s fortress belt as a result of their efforts against Kostiantynivka,” — Grace Mappes, ISW analyst

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