Cook Political Report Shifts Five Gubernatorial Races Toward Democrats

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report updated its gubernatorial outlook on July 10, 2026, moving four of five contested races into the Democratic column. Arizona’s governor’s contest changed from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat,” Ohio’s shifted from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” Maine advanced from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat,” New Mexico from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat,” and Oregon slipped from “solid Democrat” to “likely Democrat.” The only race that remained outside the Democratic column is Ohio, now classified as a “toss-up.”

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• Arizona: Incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) has raised more than $6 million in advertising and holds over six times the cash-on-hand of Republican challenger Rep. Andy Biggs.

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• Ohio: A recent New York Times poll shows former health director Amy Acton (D) and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (R) dead-locked at 47 % each.

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• Maine: Democrat Hannah Pingree leads GOP nominee Bobby Charles by a sizable polling margin.

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• New Mexico: Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland outpaces Rio Rancho Mayor Greg Hull (R) in fundraising.

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• Oregon: Gov. Tina Kotek (D) faces a “middling” approval rating against state Sen. Christine Drazan (R).

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Cook’s Senate and Governors editor Jessica Taylor said the shifts reflect a “favorable national climate” and “unique Democratic recruits” that are making traditionally red states more competitive. The report highlighted Hobbs’s fundraising edge and Biggs’s backing by President Trump as factors that could attract moderate voters. In Ohio, internal GOP sources expressed doubt about Ramaswamy’s viability, describing him as “the wrong guy to roll the dice with in this political environment.” The organization noted that if Democrats capture all five races, it would be the first time since 2010 that they hold more governorships nationwide.

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• “ The biggest changes came in Arizona and Ohio; the governor’s race in the Grand Canyon State moved from “toss up” to “lean Democrat,” and in the Buckeye State — which is currently led by Gov.” — Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report

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• “), in the GOP primary later this month, as a “potentially polarizing” candidate.” — Cook Political Report analysis

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• “Maine shifted from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat,” with Cook arguing that Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree will enter the race with a commanding polling advantage over GOP opponent Bobby Charles.” — Cook Political Report

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• “co/4qyqOuhzPL — Jessica Taylor (@JessicaTaylor) July 10, 2026 If the races result in Democratic victories, it would mark the first time since 2010 that Democrats held more governor’s offices nationally, according to the nonpartisan group.” — Cook Political Report

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The updated ratings will shape campaign strategies and donor allocations as the November 2026 gubernatorial elections approach, with both parties monitoring fundraising trends and voter sentiment in the newly competitive states.

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