Story perspectives

Analyst Sets $800 SpaceX Target, Suggests $10 T Valuation

7/11/2026

Summary

Gesuale Targets $800

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale set an $800 price target for SpaceX after its quiet period ended, implying a market cap over $10 trillion and about 425% upside from the $145.29 price.
He forecasts $837 billion revenue and $696 billion EBITDA by 2031, using a 27× EBITDA multiple to justify the $800 price.
Gesuale estimates SpaceX’s total addressable market at $30 trillion, slightly above the $28.5 trillion TAM in its S-1 filing.

Summary

SpaceX Loses Billions

SpaceX lost $5 billion last year, deepening investor skepticism.
Following its blockbuster IPO last month, SpaceX’s share price slid sharply, erasing early gains.
Critics warn that Musk’s plan for gigantic orbital data centers could worsen the orbital-debris crisis.
Skeptics note Musk’s reliance on the Kardashev scale and solar-energy fantasies as speculative, not yet feasible.

Summary

SpaceX Share Float

SpaceX floated ~5% of its shares publicly, allocating about 30% to retail investors.
Heavy oversubscription triggered an overallotment exercise, boosting total proceeds to over $85 billion.
$25 billion of bonds sold on June 22-23 were priced at junk spreads, creating near-term repayment pressure.
Insiders may sell up to 44% of their holdings in September, risking a price drop.
A $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor/Anysphere on June 16 diluted existing shares by roughly 4%.

History

Historical Context

In May 1997 Amazon.com went public on Nasdaq, pricing shares at $18 and raising $54 million, a hallmark of the dot-com boom that saw the Nasdaq Composite climb roughly 400 % between 1995 and 2000. The 2024 SpaceX public offering, promoted by analysts such as Raymond James, echoes that debut, inviting investors to back a high-growth aerospace venture amid renewed enthusiasm for disruptive technology.

1 of 4

Gesuale Targets $800

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale set an $800 price target for SpaceX after its quiet period ended, implying a market cap over $10 trillion and about 425% upside from the $145.29 price.
He forecasts $837 billion revenue and $696 billion EBITDA by 2031, using a 27× EBITDA multiple to justify the $800 price.
Gesuale estimates SpaceX’s total addressable market at $30 trillion, slightly above the $28.5 trillion TAM in its S-1 filing.

1 / 4