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63% Chance Super El Niño Could Spike Global Food Prices

7/12/2026

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Summary

Story summary

NOAA said there is a 63 % chance that sea-surface temperatures will exceed 2 °C above normal, creating a “super” El Niño that could shock global food prices.
Goldman Sachs projected the El Niño could lift global food-commodity prices by 15.8 %.
UniCredit warned the extreme El Niño may cut agricultural output by 14.3 %.
UBS said price shocks could reach 10 %-50 % for commodities and 50 %-100 % for rice and palm oil.

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Story summary

NOAA said there is a 63 % chance that sea-surface temperatures will exceed 2 °C above normal, creating a “super” El Niño that could shock global food prices.
Goldman Sachs projected the El Niño could lift global food-commodity prices by 15.8 %.
UniCredit warned the extreme El Niño may cut agricultural output by 14.3 %.
UBS said price shocks could reach 10 %-50 % for commodities and 50 %-100 % for rice and palm oil.