U.S. Missile Stockpiles Strained After Iran Conflict

The five-day “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, which ended with a ceasefire declared by President Donald Trump on Friday, exhausted a large share of the United States’ long-range precision missiles. By the time full-scale fighting stopped in April, the Pentagon had used at least half of its THAAD ballistic-missile interceptors, nearly half of its Patriot air-defense interceptors, and roughly 30 % of its Tomahawk land-attack missiles, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analysis. Analysts warn that continued strikes at the current pace would create a “new, higher level of risk … with the Indo-Pacific,” potentially limiting the U.S. ability to respond to future crises involving China or North Korea.

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Rebuilding the depleted inventories will be slow. Fiscal-year delivery schedules show the Pentagon receiving only about 15 new Tomahawks and 20 new Patriot missiles each month, with no THAAD deliveries forecast for 2026. CSIS estimates three or more years to return to pre-war levels, while American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Elaine McCusker says the timeline “will be measured in years — two-to-five for most.” Defense acquisition expert John Ferrari, a retired Army two-star general, noted that “not a single dollar has been appropriated by the Congress to replace a single missile” since the war began, leaving the “normal, slow yearly peacetime process” as the only funding path. The White House has requested supplemental funding, but congressional approval remains uncertain.

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Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell asserted that “America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.” A Pentagon official added that the department is “aggressively pursuing and integrating the best of American innovation, wherever it resides, to deliver production at scale and drive resiliency across supply chains,” while acknowledging that the impact of the Defense Production Act invocation will be limited.

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Brookings Institution foreign-policy researcher Michael O’Hanlon warned that stockpiles are “lower than we would prefer,” though he believes deterrence against China and North Korea “has not suffered yet.” He cautioned that “at some point” deterrence could wane, noting the uncertainty of when adversaries might perceive a weakness.

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• “If the war continues at the rate it’s been going for the last [five] days … it would reduce stockpiles enough that there would be a new, higher level of risk … with the Indo-Pacific,” — Mark Cancian, retired Marine Corps colonel, CSIS

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• “not a single dollar has been appropriated by the Congress to replace a single missile” — John Ferrari, retired Army two-star general, AEI

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• “The Department is aggressively pursuing and integrating the best of American innovation, wherever it resides, to deliver production at scale and drive resiliency across supply chains,” — Pentagon official

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• “America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.” — Sean Parnell, Pentagon spokesperson

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• “It’s probably unmeasurable and unknowable where that point might be, since it’s largely about an adversary’s psychology,” — Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings Institution

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