Full Breakdown
Super-Week of Inflation Data, Fed Testimony and Major Earnings Shapes Global Markets
7/13/2026, 12:07:42 AM
Core Event
From July 13-20, a dense cluster of macro-economic releases and corporate earnings will converge. The United States will publish June CPI (July 14) and PPI (July 15) while Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House and Senate. Simultaneously, the “Big Five” banks—JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup—report earnings on July 14. China will release its Q2 GDP, industrial output, retail sales and home-price data on July 15, and semiconductor leaders TSMC (July 13 sales, July 16 earnings) and ASML (July 15 earnings) will disclose results. The week also features a potential Strait of Hormuz closure, a Bank of Korea rate hike (July 16) and a Bank of Canada decision (July 15).
Background & Context
The United States entered the second half of 2026 with inflation easing but still above target, prompting markets to watch whether the June CPI shows a further slowdown. Warsh’s congressional testimony is the first semi-annual appearance since the June rate-policy meeting, and investors expect clues on the July FOMC outlook. In parallel, Chinese authorities aim to demonstrate a rebound in domestic demand after a “strong external, weak internal” environment, while AI-chip demand is under scrutiny after delayed TSMC sales and ASML’s EUV backlog.
Key Figures & Groups
- Kevin Warsh – Federal Reserve Chair, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee (July 14) and Senate Banking Committee (July 15).
- Terry Sandven – Chief equity strategist, U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
- Governor Rhee Chang-yong – Bank of Korea Governor.
- CICC – Chinese investment bank providing GDP growth forecasts.
- Major banks: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup.
- Semiconductor firms: TSMC, ASML, CXMT (STAR Market IPO).
Timeline
| Date (Beijing/ET) | Event |
|---|---|
| July 13 | TSMC June sales (delayed by Typhoon Bavi) |
| July 14 | U.S. June CPI (8:30 a.m. ET); Warsh House testimony (evening Beijing time); Big Five bank earnings |
| July 15 | China Q2 GDP, retail sales, industrial output; U.S. June PPI (8:30 a.m. ET); Warsh Senate testimony; ASML Q2 earnings; Bank of Canada rate decision |
| July 16 | TSMC full Q2 earnings; Bank of Korea rate hike; CXMT STAR Market subscription |
| July 17-20 | AI conferences (WAIC, AGI Summit) and further corporate releases |
Data & Statistics
- Core CPI forecast: 2.8 % (down from 2.9 %).
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.568 % (highest close since 22 May).
- China Q2 GDP estimate: ~4.4 % y/y (CICC).
- ASML consensus: $7.98 EPS, $10.33 bn revenue.
- Strait of Hormuz: carries ~20 % of global oil and LNG shipments.
Why It Matters
The combined reaction of inflation numbers, bank profitability and Warsh’s policy signals will shape expectations for Fed rate moves through the remainder of 2026. Strong CPI could sustain higher yields, pressuring equity valuations, while a modest reading may revive growth-oriented sectors, especially technology. Chinese GDP and semiconductor earnings will test the durability of the AI-driven investment cycle and influence global commodity flows. A confirmed closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lift energy prices, further affecting inflation dynamics worldwide.
Official Statements & Responses
- Warsh is expected to address “the central topic of inflation” and may hint at the July FOMC stance.
- Governor Rhee Chang-yong announced that “the base rate needs to be raised at an appropriate time.”
- U.S. Central Command reported that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz “remained open” after recent exchanges, contrasting with Iran’s claim of closure.
Criticism & Opposition
Analysts caution that “a narrow margin of error” surrounds the banks’ earnings outlook, noting that any surprise in yields or a persistent energy shock could quickly reverse the modest equity gains seen in the prior week. The reliance on AI-chip demand is viewed as speculative by some market observers, given the delayed TSMC sales and broader macro uncertainty.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed, while U.S. Central Command said the waterway remained open and traffic was flowing. No definitive third-party verification is provided, leaving the true impact on oil markets uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “a high-bar quarter with a narrow margin of error.” — Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist, U.S. Bank Wealth Management
- “Governor Rhee Chang-yong has previously stated clearly that the combination of above-target inflation, improving economic conditions, and rising financial stability risks means "the base rate needs to be raised at an appropriate time.” — Governor Rhee Chang-yong, Bank of Korea
What’s Next
Markets will watch the July FOMC meeting (late July) for the Fed’s final rate decision, and will monitor post-week reactions to China’s GDP release and the performance of AI-chip makers as the next wave of earnings unfolds.
