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Triple Lock Cost Surge to £15.5bn Sparks Abolition Debate

7/13/2026

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Summary

Story summary

The Office for Budget Responsibility reported the triple lock will cost about £15.5 billion a year by 2029-30, three times its original estimate.
Sir Keir Starmer said incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham will decide the lock’s future after the next election, while Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledged to keep it until 2029.
Burnham’s advisers, including Lord O’Neill and Andy Haldane, have publicly recommended abolishing the triple lock.

History

Historical Context

2010 coalition ministers created the triple-lock, ensuring the state pension each April rises by the greater of CPI, earnings growth or 2.5 % (applied from 2011). Gordon Brown’s Treasury put the cost at £2.5 billion a year, confirmed by the OBR. Labour’s 2024 manifesto vows to keep lock to 2029, while Conservative advisers Lord O’Neill and Andy Haldane push for its removal as spending reaches £15.5 billion for 2029-30.

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Story summary

The Office for Budget Responsibility reported the triple lock will cost about £15.5 billion a year by 2029-30, three times its original estimate.
Sir Keir Starmer said incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham will decide the lock’s future after the next election, while Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledged to keep it until 2029.
Burnham’s advisers, including Lord O’Neill and Andy Haldane, have publicly recommended abolishing the triple lock.

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