Story perspectives

Royal Birkdale Opens 154th Open with Scheffler Leading Odds

7/13/2026

Summary

Scheffler Favored

The 154th Open Championship opens on Thursday, July 16, 2026 at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England.
Defending champion Scottie Scheffler returns after missing the cut at the Scottish Open, while the field features Masters winner Rory McIlroy, PGA champion Aaron Rai, U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark and 2017 Royal Birkdale winner Jordan Spieth.
Scheffler leads the odds at +750, with McIlroy at +850 and Fitzpatrick, Rahm, Fleetwood and Schauffele expected to contend.

Summary

SportsLine Advises

SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, ran 10,000 simulations of the Open.
The model has accurately predicted 17 majors, including the 2026 Masters and last year’s PGA Championship.
It advises fading third-favorite Tommy Fleetwood at +1800 despite his recent top-5 finish.
It also projects Swedish rookie Ludvig Aberg at +3000 as a top-3 threat.
It flags a 35-1 longshot as a high-value bet.

History

Historical Context

The Open’s modern era has been marked by surprise champions—from Jean van de Velde’s 1999 collapse to Pádraig Harrington’s 2008 defense at Royal Birkdale, the venue’s ninth Open. It will host its tenth Open in 2026, with defending champion Scottie Scheffler facing data-driven forecasts, reflecting golf’s shift toward analytics and frequent underdog breakthroughs.

1 of 3

Scheffler Favored

The 154th Open Championship opens on Thursday, July 16, 2026 at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England.
Defending champion Scottie Scheffler returns after missing the cut at the Scottish Open, while the field features Masters winner Rory McIlroy, PGA champion Aaron Rai, U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark and 2017 Royal Birkdale winner Jordan Spieth.
Scheffler leads the odds at +750, with McIlroy at +850 and Fitzpatrick, Rahm, Fleetwood and Schauffele expected to contend.

1 / 3