Full Breakdown
Iran-U.S. Gulf Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher and Markets Uneasy
7/13/2026, 8:35:25 AM
Escalating Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran and the United States exchanged attacks in the Gulf, and Tehran announced that it had closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump countered the claim, stating the waterway remained open to commercial traffic. U.S. officials reported that 20 vessels were escorted through the strait in the preceding 24 hours, while the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said transits had already slowed to 10 by Friday. Ship-tracking data showed no vessels with active transponders in the narrowest segment on Monday, highlighting a discrepancy between official assurances and on-the-ground observations.
Market Reaction and Key Figures
The threat to shipping lifted Brent and U.S. crude futures by nearly 4%, nudged 10-year U.S. Treasury yields up 2 basis points, and strengthened the dollar broadly. The Nikkei led Asian markets lower, European share futures slipped about 0.6%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.6% as investors turned to the upcoming earnings season and the outlook for AI-related companies. Bank of America analysts warned that the AI capital-expenditure boom could push forward free-cash-flow generation negative for the first time since at least 2007. The dollar rose to ¥162.05, while the pound eased to $1.3381 ahead of a pivotal week in UK politics.
Official Statements & Responses
- “The strait is open to commercial traffic.” — Donald Trump, President
- “Transits had already slowed to 10 by Friday.” — UKMTO
- Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel, and Bank of England Executive Director Ruth Smith are slated to appear before policymakers on Monday, underscoring the broader financial implications of the geopolitical flare-up.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Iran’s claim of a closed strait conflicts with U.S. reports of escorted ship movements and UKMTO data showing reduced but ongoing transits. Additionally, ship-tracking sites recorded no vessels with active transponders in the narrowest portion, leaving uncertainty about actual traffic levels.
