Full Breakdown
Projected Regression for the 2026 College Football Season
7/13/2026, 12:50:09 PM
Overview
A CBS Sports commentary outlines the ten Power-Four programs that FanDuel Sportsbook expects to win fewer games in 2026 than they did in 2025. The piece notes that “most preseason projections land relatively close to last year’s mark,” but highlights Ohio State, Texas A&M, BYU, Oklahoma, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Iowa State and Vanderbilt as the most likely to dip.
Teams Projected to Regress
- Ohio State – 2025 wins: 12; FanDuel win total: 9.5
- Texas A&M – 2025 wins: 11; FanDuel win total: 8.5
- BYU – 2025 wins: 11; FanDuel win total: 8.5
- Oklahoma – 2025 wins: 10; FanDuel win total: 7.5
- Virginia – 2025 wins: 10; FanDuel win total: 7.5
- Georgia Tech – 2025 wins: 9; FanDuel win total: 6.5
- Wake Forest – 2025 wins: 8; FanDuel win total: 5.5
- Ole Miss – 2025 wins: 11; FanDuel win total: 7.5
- Iowa State – 2025 wins: 8; FanDuel win total: 4.5
- Vanderbilt – 2025 wins: 10; FanDuel win total: 5.5
Drivers of Expected Regression
The article cites three primary factors:
1. Strength of schedule – Ohio State’s 2026 slate includes six opponents in CBS Sports’ post-spring top 25, while Texas A&M faces a tougher SEC nine-game schedule.
2. Roster turnover – Texas A&M matched a program record with 10 selections in the 2026 NFL Draft; Iowa State returns only a handful of starters and adds 82 newcomers.
3. Coaching changes – Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt each have new coordinators or head-coach adjustments, and Wake Forest’s offense relies heavily on transfers and a relatively inexperienced line.
Implications
If FanDuel’s projections hold, the listed programs could see a contraction toward the historical mean, altering conference dynamics and playoff calculations. Ohio State, despite returning 11 starters, has “lost more than two regular-season games just once since 2005,” suggesting limited tolerance for a multi-game drop. Conversely, programs such as Ole Miss and Virginia, which benefited from favorable schedules and veteran depth, may find the projected declines harder to achieve. The commentary underscores that regression does not automatically equate to disappointment, but rather reflects the cyclical nature of college football success.
