Hamas Leader’s 2022 Memo Warned of Possible Israeli Nuclear Response

A handwritten document dated August 24 2022, authored by Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, was released by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center in early 2024. The memo, part of a series of Hamas papers captured by the Israel Defense Forces, outlines Sinwar’s operational plan for the October 7 2023 assault and explicitly notes that Israel “may even use a nuclear bomb.” Sinwar argued that Israel would “not hesitate to use all means and weapons at its disposal” and that a surprise attack would plunge the Israeli response into chaos.

The Jerusalem PostTimes of Israel

Sinwar’s blueprint called for roughly 10,000 fighters divided into “well-trained squads” of 100, targeting 25 border breaches, 221 small southern communities, eight larger towns, 1,200 urban targets, and 2,000 army bases. The memo also listed 2,210 fighters for 221 villages and 1,600 for larger settlements. In reality, the Israel Defense Forces estimate that about 5,600 militants entered Gaza on October 7 2023—approximately 3,500 Hamas members, 580 Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters, and 1,400 other Gazans—far fewer than Sinwar’s projected force.

Times of IsraelThe Jerusalem Post

The memo’s warning of a potential atomic strike reflects Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal; Israel has never confirmed possession and is not a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. No official Israeli statement directly addressed the memo’s nuclear scenario, but the document underscores the strategic calculus that Israel could resort to its full spectrum of weapons.

The Jerusalem Post

The disclosure highlights the extreme expectations Hamas held regarding both the scale of its operation and the possible severity of Israel’s retaliation. It also illustrates the depth of pre-invasion planning that anticipated a “campaign of life or death” and the symbolic recapture of villages. Understanding these internal calculations informs analyses of the conflict’s escalation dynamics and the lingering risk of nuclear rhetoric influencing regional security debates.

The Jerusalem Post

• “It may even use a nuclear bomb.” — Yahya Sinwar

The Jerusalem Post

• “Defense plan: The enemy will not hesitate to use all the means and weapons at its disposal, not only through attack but also by other means,” — Yahya Sinwar

The Jerusalem Post

• “The goal is to expel the settlers with their vehicles,” — Yahya Sinwar

Times of Israel

• “all phones must be taken, along with any additional documents they are carrying on their person.” — Yahya Sinwar

Times of Israel

• “They may even use an atomic bomb, no less.” — Yahya Sinwar

Times of Israel