Full Breakdown
SpaceX Shares Slip Back to IPO Price as Early Investors Cash Out
7/13/2026, 8:30:57 PM
Core Event: Shares Hover Near $145, Nearing IPO Level
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) opened its public offering on 12 June 2026 at the announced price of $135 per share. The stock opened at $150, surged to $176, and closed the first day at $160.95. Within three days it hit an intraday high of $225, before retreating. By the end of the first trading month the price settled around $145, a 12 % decline in the past week and roughly 18 % below the first-day close. On the most recent Friday the share closed at $145.30, essentially back at the IPO price.
Background & Context
The IPO frenzy was fueled by excitement over SpaceX’s AI ventures—its acquisition of Musk’s start-up xAI (now SpaceX AI) and the chatbot Grok—as well as expectations for the Starlink satellite broadband network. A price cut for Starlink in Memphis triggered an 8 % one-day drop. Inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on 7 July added a modest boost, but broader tech-sector weakness has kept the stock under pressure.
Data & Statistics
- IPO price: $135 per share
- First-day high: $225
- Current price (Friday): $145.30
- Market cap (public shares): ? $1.9 trillion
- 2025 revenue ( disclosed): $18 billion, with a projected $1 trillion annual revenue by 2030 (Musk)
- Forward P/E (based on estimated $0.67 earnings per share for 2027): ? 217
- Lock-up: 20 % of restricted shares may become tradable in early August; additional tranches of 7 % and 28 % follow later earnings releases.
Why It Matters
Retail investors who bought during the early surge now face paper losses, while institutional holders eye the upcoming lock-up expirations as a potential source of supply pressure. The disparity between current valuation and Musk’s revenue target raises questions about the sustainability of the premium. Moreover, the stock’s volatility influences broader market sentiment toward high-growth, founder-led tech listings.
Official Statements & Responses
Elon Musk has reiterated that SpaceX aims to generate $1 trillion in yearly revenue by 2030. Morgan Stanley, a lead underwriter of the IPO, described the recent dip as “an interlude.” Analyst Samuel Kerr noted that “if SpaceX can do all the things it says it will do, yes, investors are sitting on the most valuable company ever.” S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts project a profit of $0.67 per share next year, rising to $26 by 2032, which would imply a forward P/E of roughly 100 even at today’s price.
Criticism & Opposition
Analyst Keith Snyder warned that “if you bought around the first tick you’re definitely underwater” and likened the stock’s behavior to a “meme stock.” He expects the price could fall to $115, valuing the company near $1.5 trillion. Investor Gary Black highlighted the lock-up schedule, stating the shares “will likely fall below ‘its $135 IPO price as 20 % of locked shares become free in early-August.’” Benzinga’s rankings show unfavorable short- and medium-term trends, and some critics argue the current valuation ignores fundamental earnings gaps.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Price forecasts vary: Snyder projects a dip to $115, while Morgan Stanley’s coverage sets a target of $300, a 33 % increase over the current high. No official earnings release date has been announced, though analysts anticipate the first public earnings report in early August, coinciding with the initial lock-up expiration.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If you bought around the first tick you're definitely underwater,” — Keith Snyder, analyst, CFRA
- “It started to look a lot like a meme stock,” — Keith Snyder, analyst, CFRA
- “If SpaceX can do all the things it says it will do, yes, investors are sitting on the most valuable company ever,” — Samuel Kerr, head of equity capital markets analysis, Mergermarket
- “It showed a level of market sophistication that almost no other issuer has,” — Samuel Kerr, Mergermarket
- “its $135 IPO price as 20% of locked shares become free in early-August.” — Gary Black, investor (X post)
What’s Next
The first lock-up tranche is expected to release roughly 6 % of outstanding shares after the second-quarter earnings call, likely in early August. A public earnings report is also anticipated at that time. Analysts warn that the influx of new shares could trigger further price swings, making the coming weeks critical for investors evaluating entry points.
