Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

Warsh Takes Fed Helm, Signals Hikes, 52% September Chance

7/14/2026

44 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve Chair) was sworn in on May 22, 2026, signaled rate hikes, and omitted forward guidance and the dot-plot in his mid-June FOMC statement.
Warsh told CNBC that prices are high, prompting markets on July 10 to price a 52% chance of a September hike.
The Federal Reserve's sheet reached $6.725 trillion by July 1, while June projections cut 2026 growth to 2.2%, raised headline inflation to 3.6% and unemployment to 4.3%.

History

Historical Context

In August 1979 President Carter named Paul Volcker Fed chairman to tame double-digit inflation after the 1979-80 oil shocks. Volcker’s tight-money drive pushed the federal-funds rate to a 20 % peak in June 1981, cutting inflation from a 14.8 % high to below 3 % by 1983. Kevin Warsh’s June 2026 omission of forward guidance mirrors Volcker’s abrupt style, prompting a 52 % chance of a September hike.

1 of 2

Story summary

Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve Chair) was sworn in on May 22, 2026, signaled rate hikes, and omitted forward guidance and the dot-plot in his mid-June FOMC statement.
Warsh told CNBC that prices are high, prompting markets on July 10 to price a 52% chance of a September hike.
The Federal Reserve's sheet reached $6.725 trillion by July 1, while June projections cut 2026 growth to 2.2%, raised headline inflation to 3.6% and unemployment to 4.3%.

1 / 2