Venezuela Prepares Debt Sustainability Analysis Amid $200-$240 bn Debt Puzzle

Analysts estimate Venezuela’s total sovereign debt between $150 billion and $200 billion, while the *Financial Times* reported a larger figure of $240 billion. External commercial Eurobonds issued by the government and state oil firm PDVSA carry about $60 billion in face value; JPMorgan adds accrued interest to bring total bond claims to $102 billion. Bilateral loans total roughly $25 billion, including $8.69 billion owed to Paris Club members and $13-$15 billion in oil-backed loans to China. Multilateral development banks hold about $4 billion, and arbitration awards and court judgments amount to more than $20 billion. Additional claims from Spain’s Repsol (€4.55 billion) and Italy’s ENI ($3.3 billion) further complicate the debt picture, leaving an estimated $40 billion unaccounted for in the upper-range estimate.

Reuters

Government economic adviser Calixto Ortega announced that Venezuela will present a debt-sustainability analysis “in the coming weeks,” incorporating the economic impact of recent earthquakes. Beijing condemned the early-January redirection of Venezuelan oil exports, stating that the “legitimate rights and interests of China and other countries in Venezuela must be protected.”

Reuters

Investors question the credibility of any restructuring perimeter because Venezuela has not published comprehensive debt statistics for years and remains largely isolated by 2017 sanctions. Transparency International ranked the country 180th of 182 in its 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index, heightening doubts about the validity of creditor claims. Without an external audit or involvement from institutions such as the IMF or World Bank, the inclusion of arbitration awards—accounting for at least 10 % of the debt stock—could inflate the total and increase creditor losses.

Reuters

The disparity between the $150-$200 billion analyst range and the $240 billion figure reported by the *Financial Times* illustrates the lack of a unified debt inventory. Experts note that many obligations never entered court or arbitration, making them harder to trace, and that domestic debt may also be part of the total, further obscuring the true burden.

Reuters

• “in the coming weeks,” — Calixto Ortega, government economic adviser

Reuters

• “legitimate rights and interests of China and other countries in Venezuela must be protected” — Beijing spokesperson

Reuters

These statements underscore the government’s tentative timeline and the geopolitical sensitivities surrounding Venezuela’s debt restructuring effort.

Reuters