Full Breakdown
Iran May Target Bab el-Mandeb After Closing Hormuz, Raising New Global Energy Risks
7/14/2026, 9:29:59 PM
Expanding Threat: Possible Closure of the Red Sea Gateway
On July 14, 2026, Reuters reported that Tehran, having already disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, is signaling it could use its Yemen-based Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The narrow waterway links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and carries a substantial share of Saudi oil exports and global maritime trade. A senior Yemeni official warned that Yemeni forces were prepared to close the passage, a move that could push oil prices toward $200 a barrel. Analysts say the maneuver would create a second pressure point, expanding the conflict beyond the Gulf and intensifying pressure on Washington.
Context: From Hormuz to the Red Sea
Iran’s leverage over Hormuz has been a longstanding strategic asset. After the Gaza war began in October 2023, the Iran-backed Houthi movement launched attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, forcing rerouting around southern Africa and prompting U.S., British, and multinational naval responses. The current threat to Bab el-Mandeb is described as a “mission creep,” where each side raises stakes without crossing into direct war.
Official Statements & Responses
Former U.S. Middle-East negotiator Dennis Ross emphasized the diplomatic challenge, asking how to shift Iran’s calculus toward a workable arrangement. Saudi-based Gulf Research Center chairman Abdulaziz Sager noted that Gulf states view diplomacy with Iran as increasingly limited, despite the high regional cost of broader confrontation. He warned that any Houthi move to threaten navigation could trigger a larger U.S. and allied military response.
Criticism & Opposition
Middle-East scholar Fawaz Gerges warned that Tehran’s willingness to threaten both chokepoints signals an escalation that could destabilize global energy markets. King’s College London senior lecturer Andreas Krieg labeled the Bab el-Mandeb threat “another nuclear option” for Iran, cautioning that it would be employed only if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deemed all-out war unavoidable.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock,” — Mohammed al-Farah, political bureau member, Ansarullah (Houthi)
- “Now (Tehran) is escalating both near and wide. The message is that not only Hormuz, but Bab al-Mandab, is at risk.” — Fawaz Gerges, Middle-East scholar
- “the issue is, how do you change the Iranian calculus to the point where they're ready, again, to talk, but not just to talk, but actually to work out an arrangement that is ... acceptable.” — Dennis Ross, former U.S. Middle-East peace negotiator
- “Both a victorious Iran and a defeated Iran carry consequences for the region,” — Abdulaziz Sager, chairman, Gulf Research Center
- “Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London's School of Security Studies, described the latest Houthi threat as "another nuclear option" for Iran after Hormuz — one it would deploy only if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps concluded that a return to all-out war had become unavoidable.” — Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer, King’s College London.
