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Fed Hold Odds Rise, Gold Surges After Inflation Dip

7/15/2026

41 7 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

CME FedWatch showed an 85.6% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the late-July meeting, up from 58.3% the day before.
Gold rose over 2% after the June 2026 CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month—the biggest drop since April 2020—while year-over-year inflation was 3.5%.
Morgan Stanley chief economic strategist Ellen Zentner said the cooler inflation reading gives the Fed breathing room and eases pressure for immediate rate hikes.

History

Historical Context

After Paul Volcker became Fed chairman in 1979, he raised the federal-funds rate from 11.5% to a 17.6% peak in April 1980, forcing inflation down from double-digit levels. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows an 85.6% chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged in July 2026, echoing market reliance on Fed signals first seen during Volcker’s tightening.

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Story summary

CME FedWatch showed an 85.6% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the late-July meeting, up from 58.3% the day before.
Gold rose over 2% after the June 2026 CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month—the biggest drop since April 2020—while year-over-year inflation was 3.5%.
Morgan Stanley chief economic strategist Ellen Zentner said the cooler inflation reading gives the Fed breathing room and eases pressure for immediate rate hikes.

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