Full Breakdown
Netanyahu Trails in Latest Poll as Israel’s Election Nears
7/15/2026, 7:53:37 AM
Core Event: Poll Shows Netanyahu Behind Eisenkot
A Channel 12 television poll released on Monday indicates that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trailing his leading challenger, former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, with 34 % versus 43 % of respondents preferring Eisenkot as prime minister. The same survey projects the anti-Netanyahu bloc at 59 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, while the pro-Netanyahu bloc would secure 51 seats. Arab parties are projected to win the remaining ten seats.
Background & Context: Election Date and Post-War Politics
Israel is scheduled to hold a general election on 27 October 2024. The poll follows the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023, which reshaped political alignments and prompted the formation of a wartime cabinet that included Eisenkot until his resignation in June 2024. Voters were also asked how the October 7 onslaught affected their political stance; 38 % say they moved to the right, 49 % report no change, and 7 % say they moved to the left.
Key Figures & Groups: Candidates and Party Alignments
| Candidate | Party (Seats Projected) | Notable Background |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eisenkot | Yashar – 23 | Former chief of staff, son of Moroccan immigrants, lost son Gal and two nephews in the Gaza war; founded Yashar in 2025. |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | Likud – 22 | Veteran prime minister seeking a fifth consecutive term. |
| Naftali Bennett | Together – 16 | Former prime minister, tech entrepreneur, hard-line on security, positioned as a pragmatic alternative. |
| Yair Lapid | Yesh Atid (part of opposition alliance) | Former TV star, centrist, anti-judicial-reform activist, allied with Bennett. |
| Avigdor Lieberman | Yisrael Beiteinu (minor) | Veteran minister, opposes ultra-Orthodox privileges and calls for their conscription. |
| Left-wing Democrats | 10 | Anti-Netanyahu. |
| Yisrael Beytenu | 10 | Anti-Netanyahu. |
| Haredi parties (Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism) | 8, 8, 8, 5 respectively | Pro-Netanyahu. |
| Arab parties (Hadash-Ta’al, Ra’am) | 5 each | Typically sit outside governing coalitions. |
Data & Statistics: Seat Projections and Deal Opposition
- Seat totals: Anti-Netanyahu bloc 59, Pro-Netanyahu bloc 51, Arab parties 10.
- Public view of Netanyahu’s Haredi deal: 62 % of respondents oppose the arrangement that ties Torah-study status and draft-evasion freezes to legislation weakening the attorney-general’s powers and granting the government control over an investigative commission; 22 % support it. Opposition rises to 95 % among anti-Netanyahu voters, compared with 18 % among coalition supporters.
Criticism & Opposition: Pushback on Netanyahu’s Haredi Agreement
The poll reveals broad resistance to Netanyahu’s deal with ultra-Orthodox parties, especially among voters aligned with the anti-Netanyahu bloc. Critics argue the agreement undermines judicial independence and rewards draft evasion, fueling concerns that the government is prioritizing sectarian interests over national security and democratic norms.
Verbatim Quotes
- “A new television poll aired Monday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trailing his foremost challenger, former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, by a significant margin, with 43% of Israeli voters saying they prefer Eisenkot as prime minister, versus 34% for the sitting premier.” — *Times of Israel*
- “The anti-Netanyahu bloc would win 59 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, short of a 61-seat majority, while the pro-Netanyahu bloc would win 51.” — *Times of Israel*
- “Sixty-two percent of poll respondents said they opposed the deal, versus 22% in favor and the remainder not knowing.” — *Times of Israel*
- “Among coalition voters, 18% reported opposing the deal, a figure that skyrocketed to 95% among opposition voters.” — *Times of Israel*
- “He was a member of Netanyahu’s war Cabinet between October 2023 and June 2024, when he resigned.” — *Straits Times*
What’s Next: Election Countdown
Israel’s electorate will head to the polls on 27 October 2024 to elect the 25th Knesset. The composition of the anti- and pro-Netanyahu blocs, as projected by the latest poll, suggests that coalition negotiations will be pivotal in determining whether Netanyahu can retain power or if Eisenkot’s Yashar party will lead a new governing alliance.
