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CPI Drops 3.8%; AI Drives Chip Surge, Fed Hike Likely

7/15/2026

50 7 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

US CPI is expected at 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 4.2% in May.
AI spending of roughly $700 billion this year has driven memory-chip prices up about 400%.
Computer software inflation rose 14.5% year-over-year.
Apple raised laptop prices 15%-25% to $1,999.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) data show a 40% chance of a July Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, up from 8%.

History

Historical Context

After OPEC’s 1979 embargo drove crude above $30 a barrel and U.S. inflation past 10%, President Jimmy Carter began deregulating oil prices on April 5 1979. In response, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker lifted the federal-funds rate from 11.5% to a 17.6% peak by April 1980, sparking a recession. Today’s sharp rise in memory-chip costs revives the same pressure for tighter monetary policy.

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Story summary

US CPI is expected at 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 4.2% in May.
AI spending of roughly $700 billion this year has driven memory-chip prices up about 400%.
Computer software inflation rose 14.5% year-over-year.
Apple raised laptop prices 15%-25% to $1,999.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) data show a 40% chance of a July Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, up from 8%.

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