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Stocks Up, CPI Falls; Fed Hike Odds Slip, IBM Slides

7/15/2026

26 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

U.S. stocks rose Tuesday after June CPI fell 0.4%, setting the annual rate at 3.5% versus the 3.8% forecast.
CME FedWatch showed the chance of a July Fed rate hike fell to about 17% from roughly 42% the day before.
IBM shares fell about 24% after the company warned second-quarter revenue would miss estimates.

History

Historical Context

In response to the 1970s stagflation, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised the federal funds rate to a 20 % peak in June 1981, cutting inflation from 13.5 % to about 7 % by year-end. The sharp hike triggered an 8 % drop in the New York Stock Exchange on July 2 and a 24 % fall in IBM shares, illustrating the volatility that accompanies aggressive tightening.

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Story summary

U.S. stocks rose Tuesday after June CPI fell 0.4%, setting the annual rate at 3.5% versus the 3.8% forecast.
CME FedWatch showed the chance of a July Fed rate hike fell to about 17% from roughly 42% the day before.
IBM shares fell about 24% after the company warned second-quarter revenue would miss estimates.

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