The Emerging US-China Contest for the Lunar South Pole

Sixty years after the Apollo program’s flag-planting triumph, only three countries— the United States, Russia and China—can launch crewed missions on their own rockets. China’s rapid progress, exemplified by its modular Tiangong space station and the successful Chang’e lunar programme, positions it as the United States’ chief rival. The European Space Agency and numerous private actors now conduct robotic lunar missions, but human-rated launch capability remains concentrated in the three aforementioned nations.

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NASA’s Artemis program plans to use the Orion spacecraft for crew transport, while private firms Blue Origin and SpaceX develop separate lunar landers. An Orion-lander docking test is slated for next year, followed by a series of robotic deliveries that will lay power, communications and drilling infrastructure between 2029 and 2032. China, in partnership with Russia and other collaborators, intends to fly its Mengzhou crew capsule and Lanyue lander to the Moon around 2030, with construction of the International Lunar Research Station targeted for 2035. Both sides have identified the south pole as the preferred base location.

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The 1979 United Nations Moon Agreement declares that no nation may claim sovereignty over lunar territory and obliges responsible resource use. However, most Artemis participants—including the United States and the United Kingdom—have not signed the treaty, raising questions about enforceability. Analysts warn that without a universally accepted legal framework, the drive to secure prime ice-rich sites could devolve into a de-facto “land grab.”

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• “The new Moon race is different: space agencies are targeting the south pole of the Moon due to its deposits of water ice.” — The Conversation

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• “This could spark competition to bag the best spots.” — The Conversation

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• “The US-led effort has a medium-term goal of establishing a permanent human base at the south pole.” — The Conversation

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• “Construction of a base, called the International Lunar Research Station, is scheduled to be underway by 2035.” — The Conversation

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• “The 1979 United Nations Moon Agreement states that no one can claim sovereignty over the Moon, and must use its resources responsibly – which sounds promising.” — The Conversation

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• “Unfortunately, almost none of the countries involved with Artemis, including the US and UK, have signed it.” — The Conversation

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