Middle Powers Weigh Nuclear Options as Traditional Guarantees Waver

Amid growing doubts about the reliability of the United States’ “nuclear umbrella” and heightened Russian and Chinese threats, several middle-power states are openly debating independent nuclear capabilities. Analysts note that the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which has restrained nuclear expansion for a generation, is under strain as public support for national arsenals climbs in some countries.

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• South Korea – President Yoon Suk-yeol warned in 2023 that Seoul could “rapidly develop its own nuclear weapons” if North Korean threats intensified; a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute called the nation a “plausible candidate,” especially as U.S. forces shrink.

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• Poland – President Karol Nawrocki announced in February that Poland should pursue an “independent nuclear deterrent” while respecting international regulations; polls show a majority backs a Polish arsenal outside the U.S. umbrella.

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• Iran – Hard-liners argue the time is ripe for Tehran to convert its highly enriched uranium stockpile into a bomb; satellite images show reconstruction at Natanz, though Iran has not left the NPT.

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• Turkey – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said Turkey “cannot accept” a ban on nuclear weapons, and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned the country may “inevitably have to join the same race” if Iran acquires a bomb.

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• Saudi Arabia – Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has repeatedly stated the Kingdom would develop nuclear weapons should Iran do so; a partnership with the United States now includes a multibillion-dollar nuclear-energy component that could enable domestic enrichment.

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Polish leaders stress that any nuclear path would comply with international law, while Turkish officials emphasize current reliance on NATO’s collective defence and the strategic costs of leaving that framework. Saudi analysts describe the “evolving nuclear calculus” as a response to eroding U.S. security guarantees and regional rivalries. Iranian officials acknowledge the risk of detection and further military action if they move toward weaponisation.

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Security scholars warn that a single new nuclear state could trigger a cascade of proliferation. Dr Pavel Podvig of UNIDIR cautions against “magic wand thinking” that assumes nuclear weapons automatically guarantee security. John Erath of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation argues that an Iranian bomb would likely inspire several other countries to follow suit.

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• “There is this idea that nuclear weapons just work automatically to protect you, when the reality is more complicated,” — Dr Pavel Podvig, senior researcher, UNIDIR

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• “If Iran were to build a nuclear weapon, I believe several other countries would as well,” — John Erath, senior policy director, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

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• “The path toward a Polish nuclear project, in full respect of all international regulations, is a path Poland should pursue,” — President Karol Nawrocki

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• “Voices within the system are increasingly vocal about the need to revisit [weaponisation] in light of the failure of Iran’s missile capabilities and regional proxies to deter two major attacks in less than a year” — Naysan Rafati, Iran lead, International Crisis Group

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• “we may inevitably have to join the same race” — Hakan Fidan, Turkish foreign minister

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