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Lula Leads Bolsonaro 45%-37% in Post-Tariff Poll

7/15/2026

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Story summary
  • The Quaest poll was released after a Lula ally faced a corruption investigation and after the U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Brazilian imports.
  • The survey of 2,004 respondents conducted July 10-13 has a two-point margin of error and was commissioned by Genial brokerage.
  • Lula holds 45% support and Bolsonaro 37% for a runoff, while a first-round gives them 40% and 28% and Caiado 4%, Santos 3% and Zema 2%.