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Decision Desk: Democrats 61% House Lead, Senate Split

7/16/2026

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Summary

Story summary

Decision Desk HQ assigns Democrats a 61% chance to win House and Republicans a 57% chance to hold Senate.
The model projects a 226-209 Democratic House majority and a 50-50 Senate split broken by Vice President Vance.
Redistricting adds five Republican House seats, raising the Democratic target to eight seats for a bare majority.
Senate toss-ups in North Carolina, Alaska, Texas and Maine give Democrats probabilities between 28% and 44%.

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Story summary

Decision Desk HQ assigns Democrats a 61% chance to win House and Republicans a 57% chance to hold Senate.
The model projects a 226-209 Democratic House majority and a 50-50 Senate split broken by Vice President Vance.
Redistricting adds five Republican House seats, raising the Democratic target to eight seats for a bare majority.
Senate toss-ups in North Carolina, Alaska, Texas and Maine give Democrats probabilities between 28% and 44%.