Full Breakdown
Week 16 Waiver-Wire Targets After the All-Star Break
7/16/2026, 1:01:11 PM
Recent All-Star Break Context
The MLB schedule paused for the All-Star break and resumed on Thursday, July 15, 2026, with the New York Mets visiting the Philadelphia Phillies. The pause gave teams time to reassess rotations and address injuries, creating a wave of players emerging from rehab assignments and recent hot streaks that are now under-rostered in daily fantasy leagues.
Players Poised for Fantasy Impact
Pitchers
- Brandon Pfaadt (Arizona Diamondbacks) – Returned to the rotation on June 30 and has posted a 3-0 record, 1.72 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts.
- Matthew Liberatore (St. Louis Cardinals) – After a mid-season slump, he logged 16 innings with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his most recent three outings.
- Shane Drohan (Milwaukee Brewers) – The 27-year-old rookie logged 70 innings before the break, posting a 4-3 record, 3.09 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 19 appearances (nine starts).
- Kyle Leahy (St. Louis Cardinals) – In his last 19 1/3 innings (four starts) he recorded a 0.47 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, driven by a dramatically improved slider.
Hitters & Catchers
- Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies, SP) – Entered the break on an upswing, fanning 15 batters with only two walks across 12 innings.
- J.T. Realmuto (Philadelphia Phillies, C) – Hard-hit rate rose to 55.6 % in his four games before the break, with four balls exiting over 100 mph.
- Ryan Jeffers (Minnesota Twins, C) – After returning from a hamate fracture, he posted a .295 average, seven homers and 26 RBI in his first 37 games.
- Cole Carrigg (Colorado Rockies, OF) – In 31 major-league games he is batting .273 with four homers and a 35.9 % launch-angle success rate.
- Jake Mangum (Pittsburgh Pirates, OF) – Now batting .310 with 18 steals, he has thrived after moving to the top of the lineup.
Performance Data & Roster Availability
- Pitchers highlighted are under 25 % rostered across Yahoo and ESPN leagues, making them prime waiver-wire candidates.
- Nola is rostered in 37.4 % of ESPN leagues; Realmuto in 14.0 %; Jared Young (Mets) in 0.3 %; Caleb Durbin (Red Sox) in 34.3 %.
- Relievers such as Gavin Lux (Rays) and Cole Sands (Twins) sit at 0.5 % and 0.3 % rostered, respectively, after recent rehab work.
Strategic Implications for Fantasy Managers
Adding low-rostered pitchers with recent sub-1.00 ERAs can provide a decisive edge in categories that reward strikeouts and low WHIP. Hitters with elevated hard-hit rates or increased speed metrics (e.g., Realmuto, Mangum) help address the scarcity of power-speed combos. Managers should prioritize players whose upcoming schedules align with weaker offensive opponents—Drohan’s next start against the Mets, for example, pits him against a team with the sixth-lowest wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Official Analysis & Recommendations
ESPN’s pre-break preview advises daily-league managers to “consider picking up Phillies and Mets” to get a head start, citing Nola’s recent strikeout surge and Realmuto’s hard-hit streak. Rotoballer’s column emphasizes “hot starting pitchers” such as Pfaadt and Liberatore, noting their recent performance spikes and low roster penetration. The Must-Add roundup further highlights Drohan, Jeffers, Carrigg, Mangum and Seigler as “must-add” players for the second half of the season.
Criticism & Risks
Low roster percentages reflect limited sample sizes and recent role changes. Pfaadt’s overall 4.42 xERA and Liberatore’s 5.23 xERA suggest volatility despite recent improvements. Managers should monitor injury updates—Lux, Myers and several relievers remain on rehab assignments—and be prepared to drop players if performance regresses.
Verbatim Quotes
- “4% rostered in ESPN leagues): It was an uneven first half for the veteran right-hander, but he went into the break on an upswing, fanning 15 with just two walks over his past two outings, spanning 12 innings.” — ESPN, Fantasy Baseball Preview
- “0% rostered): Chasing a hot streak is often an exercise in futility, since many productive stretches involve luck or good timing as opposed to exhibiting improved skills.” — ESPN, Fantasy Baseball Preview
