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Saharan Dust Slows Gulf Storms, CSU Forecasts Nine

7/16/2026

36 4 Full Breakdown

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Saharan Dust Slows storms

Saharan dust spreading across the Gulf is acting as a natural brake on storm formation.
National Hurricane Center monitors Gulf disturbance with 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within seven days.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast for Central, North and eastern Florida Panhandle days.
Colorado State University cut 2026 hurricane season forecast to nine storms, citing El Niño-driven wind shear.

Right

Cabo Verde Wave Organizes

A wave southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands has organized, raising its development odds to 10%.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an unnamed disturbance in the eastern Atlantic that could become a tropical storm.
Forecasters expect the wave to move west-northwest and meet conditions that hinder development by weekend.
Even without naming, the disturbance may bring heavy rain, gusty winds, rough seas and thunderstorms.

History

Historical Context

In June 1995 the Atlantic hurricane season erupted with 19 named storms—the most on record at the time—driven by La Niña and producing an ACE of 227. That surge marked the start of a 30-year high-activity phase that researchers at Colorado State University now compare to El Niño-related wind shear. The National Hurricane Center, recalling that legacy, monitors the Gulf disturbance with a 20 % development chance.

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Saharan Dust Slows storms

Saharan dust spreading across the Gulf is acting as a natural brake on storm formation.
National Hurricane Center monitors Gulf disturbance with 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within seven days.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast for Central, North and eastern Florida Panhandle days.
Colorado State University cut 2026 hurricane season forecast to nine storms, citing El Niño-driven wind shear.

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