Full Breakdown
Trump Threatens Strike on Iran’s “Pickaxe Mountain” Nuclear Site Amid Escalating Conflict
7/16/2026, 9:54:37 PM
Core Event
On July 13, President Donald Trump announced on the Hugh Hewitt television program that the United States was preparing to “take out Pickaxe Mountain” and warned Iranian officials to “be ready.” The statement came as U.S. forces launched a third consecutive night of precision strikes across Iran, following the collapse of a two-week cease-fire that had been in place from April 7-8, 2026.
Background & Context
Pickaxe Mountain—also known locally as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La—is a fortified underground complex situated about 220 km (140 mi) south of Tehran and 2 km (1.2 mi) from the Natanz nuclear complex. Construction began in 2020 after a reported sabotage incident at Natanz. The site is buried 80-100 m beneath solid granite, deeper than the Fordow facility targeted in June 2025. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has never been granted access, and UN inspectors remain blocked.
Key Figures & Groups
- Donald Trump, President of the United States – announced the potential strike.
- Michael Mulroy, former senior U.S. defence official – described Pickaxe as “high on the list of targets.”
- Mark Cancian, former U.S. Army colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies – noted the uncertainty of bunker-buster penetration.
- Andrea Stricker, researcher at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies – urged a ground raid to prevent site completion.
- Iranian regime spokesperson – warned that any U.S. attack would trigger a destructive response.
Data & Statistics
- Satellite analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) indicates two tunnel entrances, each leading to a facility at least 100 m underground, with a large security perimeter and hardened entrances.
- U.S. intelligence estimates the site could hold ? 440 kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for roughly 10 atomic bombs.
- The U.S. has deployed GBU-57 14-tonne bunker-buster bombs in the 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, but the stock of these munitions is reported to be low.
Why It Matters / Impact
If operational, Pickaxe Mountain could enable Iran to resume advanced centrifuge production or store weapon-grade uranium, altering regional nuclear dynamics. The threat of a U.S. strike raises the risk of further escalation, potentially affecting global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and heightening international security concerns.
Official Statements & Responses
- The White House reiterated that the United States is “watching Pickaxe Mountain closely” and that “we see no activity there.”
- U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported precision-guided munitions striking Iranian coastal-defence systems, missile and drone sites, and maritime capabilities across the country.
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any U.S. attack would be met “destructively” and that the “price will be paid by American soldiers and his regional allies.”
Criticism & Opposition
Security analysts question the feasibility of destroying a facility buried beneath granite. Mark Cancian stated that “anybody really knows” whether the U.S. can inflict serious damage. Andrea Stricker argued that a ground raid might be the only viable option to prevent the site’s completion, warning that “Trump should not give Iran the opportunity to finish a hardened nuclear site.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
U.S. officials claim the GBU-57 bombs “obliterated” targets in Operation Midnight Hammer, yet intelligence assessments suggest Iran retains much of its nuclear capability and the depth of Pickaxe Mountain may exceed the penetrative power of existing munitions. No independent verification of damage to the site exists, and the IAEA has not inspected the complex.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready. Okay, there’s nothing they can do about it,” — Donald Trump, President of the United States
- “Pickaxe is a possible target for a nice big fat shot right near the front door,” — Donald Trump
- “If Trump carries out his threats, we will respond destructively – and the price will be paid by American soldiers and his regional allies,” — Iranian regime spokesperson
- “I think Pickaxe is high on the list of targets and it should be,” — Michael Mulroy, former senior defence official
- “disrupted Iran’s activities” … “anybody really knows” … — Mark Cancian, senior adviser, CSIS
What’s Next
No concrete timetable for a U.S. strike has been announced. President Trump indicated that a decision could be made “relatively soon,” while diplomatic channels remain open, leaving the prospect of further military action or negotiation uncertain.
