Trump Administration Turns to Section 301 to Replace Lost Tariff Revenue

Revenue from the import taxes that President Donald Trump imposed peaked at more than $31.4 billion in October 2024. After the Supreme Court ruled in February that the president could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose those tariffs, the Treasury’s intake fell to $22 billion in both March and April. Refunds to importers outpaced collections, creating a $42 million shortfall in May and a $25.6 billion loss in June. The court’s decision also forced the administration to return the levies, turning the tariff program from a windfall into a drain on the Treasury.

Associated Press

To recoup the lost revenue, the administration is pursuing two large Section 301 investigations. The first targets 60 countries—accounting for 99 % of U.S. imports—over alleged failures to curb forced-labor goods, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer proposing 10 % tariffs on 16 countries and 5 % on 44. The second investigation examines whether 16 trading partners (including China, the European Union and Japan) are overproducing goods that depress global prices. While the forced-labor tariffs are pending public comment, officials say they expect to enact them before the July 24 expiration of the Section 122 tariffs. The overproduction probe remains unfinished, but trade attorneys anticipate additional large tariffs within the next two months.

Associated Press

The shifting tariff landscape has left companies hesitant to invest, citing unclear future trade rules. Analysts note that Section 301 tariffs are “rule-bound” and thus less volatile than the earlier emergency-powers levies, yet uncertainty persists. The timing also aligns with the Nov. 3 midterm elections, prompting speculation that the administration may delay or accelerate tariff actions for political advantage.

Associated Press

President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have pledged to use all legal authorities to restore revenue. Greer’s office is collecting comments before finalizing the forced-labor tariffs. Trade officials acknowledge procedural requirements—public comment periods and hearings—must be satisfied before any tariffs take effect.

Associated Press

• “Really, they’re operating about as fast as legally possible,’’ he said.” — Nathaniel Halvorson, partner, Baker McKenzie

Associated Press

• “Section 301s have been pretty legally durable,” — Sarah Bianchi, Evercore ISI

Associated Press

• “I think there will be legal challenges.” — Sarah Bianchi, Evercore ISI

Associated Press