Full Breakdown
Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party Leads Polls as Israel’s Election Landscape Shifts
7/17/2026, 8:19:41 PM
Core Event: Poll Surge and Coalition Ambiguity
Recent opinion surveys place former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party at the forefront of the 2026 Israeli election race. A joint Tatika-Agenda poll projects Yashar with 23 Knesset seats, surpassing Likud’s 21. A Channel 13 survey forecasts Yashar at 21 seats, while a Maariv poll shows Yashar tied with Likud at 22 seats. Across the polls, the anti-Netanyahu bloc—comprising Yashar, Bennett-Lapid’s Together, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and other centrist formations—reaches a combined 61-62 seats, short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government without additional partners.
Background & Context: From Oslo to Draft Reform
In the 1990s Israeli voters prioritized the Oslo peace process, and haredi parties were courted for coalition math. Today, the decisive issue is the exemption of ultra-Orthodox (haredi) men from military service. Recent legislation, pushed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Shas leader Arye Deri, freezes the arrest of haredi draft evaders, sparking widespread public backlash.
Key Figures & Groups
- Gadi Eisenkot – Yashar leader, former IDF chief of staff, former National Unity MK.
- Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef – Former chief rabbi and Shas spiritual leader, whose recent sermon praised Eisenkot.
- Netanyahu – Prime Minister, leader of Likud, defending the draft-exemption law.
- Shas – Ultra-Orthodox party led by Arye Deri.
- Yisrael Beytenu – Secular right-wing party headed by Avigdor Liberman, which has ruled out cooperation with haredi or Arab parties.
Data & Statistics
- Seat projections: Yashar 23 (Tatika-Agenda), 22 (Maariv), 21 (Channel 13); Likud 21-22; Together 15; Yisrael Beytenu 10; Shas 7-9.
- Public opinion on draft exemptions: 61 % of respondents demand immediate repeal of the law freezing arrests of haredi tax evaders and the Basic Law on Torah study; 23 % support maintaining the exemptions.
- Coalition preferences: 83 % oppose including haredi parties in any post-election coalition; 70 % favor the inclusion of an Arab party.
Official Statements & Responses
Rabbi Yosef used his weekly sermon to commend Eisenkot’s personal qualities and to signal openness to a partnership that could replace Netanyahu’s leadership. He simultaneously condemned Netanyahu’s handling of the conscription law, calling the prime minister a liar. Eisenkot, appearing on Channel 12, categorically denied any current contact with Shas, stating he has not spoken to a Shas MK in the past year. He outlined three non-negotiable coalition criteria: recognition of Israel as the Jewish nation-state, adherence to the Declaration of Independence, and acceptance of mandatory service (military or national). He also labeled Netanyahu and his security cabinet “not fit to hold any leadership position.”
Criticism & Opposition
Political analysts warn that Eisenkot’s deliberate ambiguity may erode trust among soft-right voters who fear a “stinking maneuver” reminiscent of Shimon Peres’s 1990 back-room deals. Comparisons to Naftali Bennett’s broken pledge not to sit with Arab parties highlight the risk of perceived opportunism. Critics argue that Eisenkot’s flexibility, while maximizing coalition options, could alienate voters seeking clear commitments on draft reform.
Why It Matters
If Yashar’s centrist bloc secures a governing majority, Israel could see a decisive shift in draft policy, potentially ending the ultra-Orthodox exemption and addressing the IDF’s manpower shortage. Such a change would also affect Israel’s security posture, its diplomatic relations with the United States, and regional stability, given Eisenkot’s reputation as a pragmatic military strategist.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on Yashar’s exact seat count (21-23) and on the total size of the anti-Netanyahu bloc (61 vs. 62 seats). No source provides a definitive timeline for coalition negotiations after the October 27 election, and the stance of smaller centrist parties such as the Yoaz Hendel-Chili Tropper alliance remains unclear.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Due to our many sins, we are in a secular, non-haredi state,” — Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef
- “Netanyahu cheated us on the conscription law,” he said.” — Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef
- “I haven’t seen a single Shas MK over the past year. I haven’t seen one, and I haven’t spoken to one.” — Gadi Eisenkot
- “We will establish a Zionist, statesmanlike government,” — Gadi Eisenkot
- “not fit to hold any leadership position” — Gadi Eisenkot
