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Story summary
- NOAA confirms Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures are about 2 °C above average.
- The model median now forecasts a 3.6 °C peak, exceeding the 2.75 °C record of 2015-16.
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology projects a +3.3 °C anomaly that will persist through the coming summer.
- Ensembles give a ~91 % chance of a new Niño 3.4 record, a ~77 % chance in RONI terms, and a ~28 % chance 2026 will be warmer than 2024.
