Full Breakdown
Opposition Bloc Projected to Secure Narrow Majority in Israel’s 2026 Election
7/19/2026, 7:49:56 AM
Core Poll Findings
Two recent opinion polls indicate that the coalition of parties opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to command a slim majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The Channel 13 survey released on Wednesday projects the opposition bloc at 61 seats, while the Maariv poll published on Friday forecasts 62 seats for the same coalition. Both polls place Netanyahu’s Likud party at 22 seats, tied with former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party, which is projected to win 21–22 seats. The remaining opposition seats are allocated to Naftali Bennett’s Together (15–16 seats), Yair Golan’s Democrats (11 seats), Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu (9–10 seats), and a new alliance of Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper (four seats).
Election Landscape and Recent Legislative Moves
The polls arrive as the Knesset prepares for dissolution ahead of the October 27, 2026 election. In the days preceding the vote, senior officials in Transportation Minister Miri Regev’s office have discussed limiting incoming charter flights, a measure aimed at curbing the return of tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad who are expected to vote against Netanyahu. Concurrently, the Knesset’s Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, which holds a coalition majority, advanced legislation to end the placement of polling stations in retirement and assisted-living facilities—a change that could affect 35,000–37,000 voters, a demographic that historically leans away from Netanyahu’s bloc.
Data & Statistics
- Opposition bloc: 61 seats (Channel 13) / 62 seats (Maariv)
- Likud: 22 seats (both polls)
- Yashar!: 21 seats (Channel 13) / 22 seats (Maariv)
- Together: 15 seats (Channel 13) / 16 seats (Maariv)
- Democrats: 11 seats (both)
- Yisrael Beiteinu: 10 seats (Channel 13) / 9 seats (Maariv)
- Hendel-Tropper alliance: 4 seats (both)
- Ultra-Orthodox parties: United Torah Judaism 8, Shas 7, Jewish Power 7, Religious Zionism 4–6
- Arab parties: Hadash-Ta’al 5, Ra’am 4; Balad and Blue and White failed to cross the 3.25 % threshold.
- Public sentiment: 83 % oppose inclusion of ultra-Orthodox parties in a governing coalition; 70 % support the participation of an Arab party.
Official Statements & Responses
Yesh Atid MK and committee member Karine Elharrar condemned the bill ending polling stations in senior facilities:
> “This is a jarring final note for this Knesset term. For years, election laws were passed with broad agreement. Unfortunately, we are forced to vote against this bill because you refused to ensure accessible and fair elections for every citizen.” — Karine Elharrar, Yesh Atid MK
Criticism & Opposition
Opposition leaders have denounced the proposed flight restrictions and polling-booth changes as partisan tactics designed to suppress votes from demographics that traditionally oppose Netanyahu. The measures have been described by critics as “naked partisan politics” that undermine the principle of universal suffrage.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The two polls differ by one seat in the opposition’s projected total (61 vs. 62) and vary slightly on the seat counts for Together, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Religious Zionism party. Neither poll disclosed sample sizes or margins of error, limiting the ability to assess statistical confidence.
What’s Next
The Knesset committee’s vote on the polling-station bill is set to take effect before the election, and discussions within the Transportation Ministry on flight limitations are ongoing. Both initiatives are expected to influence voter accessibility in the weeks leading up to October 27.
