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Senate CLARITY Act Stalls Over Trump Crypto Conflict

7/20/2026

Summary

Senate Stalls

Senate negotiations on the CLARITY Act stalled after Democrats withdrew over President Donald Trump’s crypto conflict-of-interest.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune set an August 10, 2026 deadline for a vote.
Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats 47, requiring at least seven Democrats to join to reach the 60 votes needed for cloture.
Polymarket rates the bill’s chance of passing this year at about 40%.

Summary

Trump urges Senate

President Donald Trump posted on July 19 urging the Senate to pass the Clarity Act honoring Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Banking trade groups argue the bill’s stablecoin yield allowance could draw deposits from traditional banks.
Prediction market Kalshi gave a 73% probability on July 16 that the Senate will vote before the August 11 recess.
The act defines a “mature blockchain,” a criterion that will decide whether tokens are securities or cryptocurrencies.

History

Historical Context

New York’s Department of Financial Services introduced the BitLicense in July 2014, and after it took effect on August 8 2015 the state saw ten bitcoin firms withdraw in what the press called the “Great Bitcoin Exodus.” Designed by Superintendent Benjamin Lawsky and announced by Governor Andrew Cuomo, the framework now informs the federal CLARITY Act, which Senate leaders John Thune and Lindsey Graham are debating.

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Senate Stalls

Senate negotiations on the CLARITY Act stalled after Democrats withdrew over President Donald Trump’s crypto conflict-of-interest.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune set an August 10, 2026 deadline for a vote.
Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats 47, requiring at least seven Democrats to join to reach the 60 votes needed for cloture.
Polymarket rates the bill’s chance of passing this year at about 40%.

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