Andy Burnham’s Prospects: Debunking the Narrative of Inevitable Unpopularity

Commentators have argued that Andy Burnham, newly elected leader of the Labour Party and prime minister, is “doomed” to become one of the least-liked occupants of Downing Street. The claim rests on a perception that contemporary voters are increasingly hostile to national leaders, a view amplified by references to recent “record-low” satisfaction scores for former prime ministers.

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Long-term polling by Ipsos (formerly MORI) shows that every prime minister has experienced periods when at least 60 % of the public expressed dissatisfaction. Former leaders fall into four rating groups: James Callaghan and David Cameron (worst ratings above -40); Tony Blair, Theresa May and Boris Johnson (mid--40s); Gordon Brown and Liz Truss (-51); and Margaret Thatcher, John Major, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer (-56 to -66). A steady decline from -38 to -59 is observable when ignoring a brief pre-2016 bump for Cameron. Earlier data from Gallup indicate that negative net ratings began in the 1960s with Harold Wilson (-34 in May 1968) and Edward Heath (-26 in June 1971). Prior to the 1980s, several post-war premiers—Clement Attlee, Winston Churchill and Anthony Eden—never recorded negative net ratings.

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YouGov recorded a net rating of -70 for Liz Truss in mid-October 2022 (favourable 10 %, unfavourable 80 %). By contrast, the worst YouGov figures for Keir Starmer in December 2023 were favourable 15 % and unfavourable 76 %. Burnham’s own electoral test in the Makerfield by-election showed a 10-point increase in Labour’s vote share—the largest surge ever for a governing party defending a seat in a fully contested contest.

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The pessimistic narrative attributes the trend to “dangerous cultural divisions, poisonous social media and rowdy behaviour at Westminster.” Critics argue that these forces create an “unforgiving electorate” destined to reject any incumbent. The opposing analysis contends that hostility to prime ministers is not a new phenomenon; each premiership’s circumstances—Cameron’s Brexit loss, May’s party divisions, Johnson’s “partygate” scandal, Truss’s market crash, and Sunak’s inheritance of a defeated Conservative brand—explain the fluctuations rather than an inexorable decline.

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Burnham’s future approval will hinge on his ability to persuade voters of his policies, not on historical inevitability. Labour’s broader unpopularity adds a structural challenge, yet the Makerfield result suggests that decisive campaigning can reverse negative trends. Ultimately, the new prime minister’s fate remains “not written in the stars, nor determined by history,” and will be judged on performance rather than predetermined public hostility.

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