Trump’s Manufacturing Claims vs Recent Job and Tariff Data

Economist Steve Rattner posted a side-by-side graph comparing U.S. manufacturing employment under President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The chart shows a steady increase in jobs throughout Biden’s term, while the period after Trump’s 2024 re-election recorded a net loss of 75,000 manufacturing positions as of July. Rattner’s visual evidence challenges Trump’s campaign rhetoric that his policies would usher in a “golden age of American manufacturing.”

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Rattner also highlighted federal tariff revenue trends during Trump’s second term. After tariffs were halted by a Supreme Court ruling deeming them illegal, the Treasury moved from collecting revenue to paying back $26 billion in refunds. The shift marks a negative balance for the government, contradicting earlier claims that tariffs generated substantial earnings for the United States.

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President Trump has repeatedly asserted that his tariff strategy would revitalize domestic production. Rattner summarized the contrast, noting that “Trump claimed his tariffs would bring about a golden age of American manufacturing,” yet the employment data and recent tariff refunds suggest otherwise. Rattner’s posts on X (formerly Twitter) serve as the primary source of this counter-analysis.

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Rattner, a former adviser to President Barack Obama’s auto-industry recovery task force, argues that the tariff approach “has done considerable damage to the sector.” He points out that the job decline and the $26 billion refund bill “are just getting started,” implying that the negative effects may continue as the government processes the court-mandated repayments.

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• “Trump claimed his tariffs would bring about a golden age of American manufacturing,” — Steve Rattner, Investor/Economic Analyst

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• “Yet since his re-election, we've lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs. Over the same period, Biden had created 625,000.” — Steve Rattner

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• “President Trump used to brag about all the money we were making from tariff revenue,” — Steve Rattner

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• “Last month, that trend flipped to a $26 billion loss as the government started paying back the tariffs the Supreme Court ruled illegal.” — Steve Rattner

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