Full Breakdown
Space-Launch Costs Have Fallen 96 % Since 1960 and May Still Be Dropping
7/21/2026, 11:51:57 AM
Core Findings
A new study of 4,405 launches from 1960-2025—covering more than 330 rocket configurations from the United States, Russia, China, India, Europe, Japan, Australia, Brazil, Israel, Iran, South Korea and Ukraine—shows the average cost of sending 1 kg to orbit fell from $87,023 in 1960 to $3,868 in 2025, a 96 % reduction. The researchers calculated that each time the cumulative payload of the global launch industry doubled, the cost per kilogram dropped by 21.2 %, a learning rate that exceeds that of solar-panel production.
Historical Drivers
The authors attribute the acceleration to two structural shifts. First, the end of the Cold War and the rise of “New Space,” where commercial operators replace national launchers, created stronger incentives to cut costs. Second, the introduction of reusable launchers—most notably SpaceX’s Falcon 9—has amplified the learning curve, allowing the industry to reap economies of scale previously unavailable.
Quantitative Trends
- Cost per kilogram (2024 USD): $87,023 -> $3,868 (1960-2025).
- Learning rate: 21.2 % cost reduction per payload-doubling, outpacing the 20.2 % rate for solar photovoltaics.
- Projected costs: $1,600 per kg by 2030 and $300 per kg by 2040, assuming the current doubling cadence continues.
Why It Matters
At $3,868 per kg, a launch costs roughly the price of a high-end laptop; at the projected $300 per kg, it would be cheaper than most airline overweight-bag fees. The authors argue that such prices could make orbital-manufacturing, zero-gravity pharmaceuticals, asteroid mining, and space-based solar power commercially viable, potentially expanding the global space economy—already valued at about $613 billion in 2024—toward the $1 trillion mark within a decade.
Official Statements & Responses
Researchers stress that the post-Cold-War era, combined with reusable technology, has been the primary catalyst for cost declines. They also note that the trend is not guaranteed; future reductions could be slowed by debris, market concentration, and geopolitical tensions that might revive Cold-War-style fragmentation.
Criticism & Opposition
Three downside scenarios are highlighted: (1) Space-debris risk—high-speed collisions could trigger a Kessler-syndrome cascade; (2) Monopolistic pressure—SpaceX currently delivers roughly 86.6 % of global payload mass, creating incentives to raise prices if competition wanes; (3) Geopolitical fragmentation—export controls or a split between Western and Chinese launch ecosystems could erode the scale benefits that drive cost cuts.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The dataset ends in 2025, so projections rely on the assumption that payload-doubling will persist. The study does not quantify demand for the massive orbital capacity required to sustain the curve, leaving uncertainty about whether megaconstellations or other applications will generate sufficient volume.
Verbatim Quotes
- “First, the end of the Cold War and the shift to so-called 'New Space,' meaning the use of space for commercial purpose, seems to have accelerated the rate of learning — in the Cold War era, countries launched with their national launchers no matter the cost,” — Alessio Terzi, assistant professor of public policy, University of Cambridge
- “Second, our data shows an acceleration in the learning rate of space since the launch of the Falcon 9 of SpaceX , and the advent of reusability at scale.” — Alessio Terzi
- “Space is no longer a science-fiction fantasy or a purely scientific pursuit, it is becoming a marketplace,” — Alessio Terzi, study lead, press release
- “State-led competition during the Cold War did not foster cost efficiency on the same scale as the ensuing era of international space cooperation and private-sector involvement,” — Francesco Nicoli, associate professor of political economy, Politecnico University of Turin
- “The marginal cost of a reused Falcon 9 launch now sits well below the manufacturing cost of any expendable Western competitor’s first stage.” — SpaceDaily analysis (based on study data)
What’s Next
SpaceX plans to inspect booster B1085 for an eighteenth flight, while China’s Long March 10B booster, recovered on 10 July 2026, is slated for refurbishment and a re-flight before year-end. The continuation of these reusability cycles will be a key test of whether the projected cost curve can be sustained.
