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Story summary
- Economists Clemens Grafe and Basak Edizgil say Turkey will let the lira depreciate faster, targeting a drop of over 20% against the dollar.
- They expect current-account gap to widen to 3.5% of GDP ($60 billion) by 2026 while exports remain flat 2022-2024 and fall in late 2024.
- The bank holds the repo rate at 37% and says rates must stay above market pricing to preserve de-dollarization and balance competitiveness against inflation.
