Story perspectives

US Labor Force Shrinks 2.7 M, Raising Young Workers' Pay

7/21/2026

Summary

Story summary

Steven Ruggles projects the U.S. labor force will shrink by 2.7 million (1.3 %) between 2030 and 2040.
He notes that 10,000 baby-boomers turn 65 each year from 2011-2029, with a 2025 record of 4.18 million (11,400 per day).
Ruggles expects the resulting shortage to raise wages for young workers, strengthen unions and cut inequality.
He warns that jobs unlikely to be automated—electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC technicians—will face tighter markets and higher pay.

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Story summary

Steven Ruggles projects the U.S. labor force will shrink by 2.7 million (1.3 %) between 2030 and 2040.
He notes that 10,000 baby-boomers turn 65 each year from 2011-2029, with a 2025 record of 4.18 million (11,400 per day).
Ruggles expects the resulting shortage to raise wages for young workers, strengthen unions and cut inequality.
He warns that jobs unlikely to be automated—electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC technicians—will face tighter markets and higher pay.