Short Sellers Bet $25 B Against SpaceX as Float Hits One-Third Ahead of First Earnings

Short sellers have increased their bearish wagers on SpaceX to roughly 32 % of the company’s publicly tradable float, amounting to about $25 billion in notional bets. The surge in short interest comes as SpaceX prepares to release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company, scheduled for August 4. Analysts note that the heightened activity coincides with anticipated lock-up expirations that could further affect share supply.

CNBCShort sellers increase bets against SpaceX to 3.. .

• Approximately 206 million SpaceX shares are currently sold short, representing about 32 % of the float (S3 Partners).

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• This marks an increase from roughly 185 million shares (29 % of the float) reported the previous week.

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• A month earlier, short interest was estimated at 40 million shares, or 5 %–7 % of the float.

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• The notional value of these short positions is estimated at $25 billion.

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Elon Musk responded on X, stating that firms maintaining a significant short position in SpaceX have a low likelihood of long-term survival. He emphasized the company’s ambitious goals and suggested that the firm’s eventual valuation could far exceed current expectations. Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3 Partners, said the rise in short exposure is driven by several upcoming catalysts, including the imminent earnings release and forthcoming lock-up expirations.

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The concentration of short interest at one-third of the float signals heightened market scrutiny ahead of the earnings disclosure. If the earnings report meets or exceeds expectations, short sellers could face substantial losses, potentially influencing broader market sentiment toward high-growth, newly public aerospace firms. Conversely, weaker results may validate the bearish bets and pressure the stock’s upward trajectory.

Short sellers increase bets against SpaceX to 3.. .

• “We continue to see short sellers adding exposure ahead of several key upcoming catalysts, including the company's first earnings report as a public company and subsequent lock-up expirations,” — Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3

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• “The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” — Elon Musk

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