Full Breakdown
Tropical Storm Bertha – Gulf Coast Threat in July 2026
7/22/2026, 12:07:56 AM
Core Event
Tropical Storm Bertha, the second named system of the 2026 Atlantic season, formed as a tropical depression on July 19 off the west coast of Florida. By July 20 it was upgraded to a tropical storm, located about 110 mi (177 km) south-southwest of Panama City, Florida, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). On July 21 the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported the center 90–110 mi (145–177 km) south-southwest of Panama City and 125–170 mi (200–274 km) southeast of Mobile, Alabama, moving north-northwest at 3–5 mph. Winds were reported between 50 mph and 60 mph, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 70–95 mi from the center.
Background & Context
Bertha follows Tropical Storm Arthur, which produced heavy rain in the Southeast in June 2026. Seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University and NOAA anticipate a below-average Atlantic season due to a strong El Niño that increases wind shear. Warm Gulf waters have allowed Bertha to maintain tropical-storm status, though forecasters expect gradual weakening as the storm encounters dry air and increasing shear.
Data & Statistics
| Parameter | Reported Value(s) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Maximum sustained winds | 50–60 mph (80–95 km/h) | NHC |
| Wind gusts | Up to 63 mph (100 km/h) in Louisiana; 49 mph (79 km/h) offshore near Pensacola | NHC; NOAA buoy |
| Storm-surge heights | 1–4 ft (0.3–1.2 m) along parts of Louisiana and Mississippi; 2–4 ft in southeastern Louisiana and Alabama | NHC |
| Rainfall forecast | 2–4 in (5–10 cm) across the Gulf Coast, with isolated totals of 6–8 in (15–20 cm) | NHC |
| Pressure | Minimum central pressure 995–998 mb | NHC |
Impact
- Coastal flooding: Surge watches and coastal-flood warnings were issued for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida-Alabama border. Surge heights of 2–4 ft could combine with high tide to inundate low-lying areas.
- Flash flooding: Rainfall of 2–4 in is expected to cause flash flooding, especially in urban zones of New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola.
- Wind damage: Sustained tropical-storm-force winds with gusts up to 60 mph could down trees and power lines.
- Marine hazards: Swells of 8–11 ft are generating life-threatening surf and rip currents along the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi beaches; double red flags have been posted.
Official Statements & Responses
- The National Weather Service in New Orleans issued a coastal-flood warning, noting surge impacts depend on tide timing.
- Local emergency managers distributed sandbags and urged residents to clear storm drains.
- Mississippi’s Harrison County spokesperson Jeff Clark said public attention has risen after recent flooding from Arthur.
- Louisiana State Climatologist Barry D.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Wind speed: Some advisories list 50 mph, others 60 mph; both appear in NHC updates at different times.
- Surge estimates: Early forecasts cited 1–4 ft, later graphics indicated 2–4 ft, reflecting different tide-timing assumptions.
- Landfall location: Forecasts range from southeastern Louisiana to farther west toward Texas; the NHC cone of uncertainty includes both scenarios.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Overall, Bertha is a low-grade tropical threat to North Florida and the Central Gulf Coast, and overall won’t be much different from a normal summer mix of sun and rain away from the immediate coast,” — Dr. Ryan Truchelut, WeatherTiger
- “For locals, this is just another storm,” — Candice Henderson
- “Because of that, people are definitely paying attention, or at least you would hope so,” — Jeff Clark
