Troy Jackson Holds Slight Edge Over Susan Collins in New Maine Senate Poll Amid Temperament Concerns

A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll of 1,236 likely Maine voters conducted between July 15 and July 20 found 49% would choose Democratic challenger Troy Jackson for U.S. Senate, compared with 46% for five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins. Five percent of respondents were undecided or favored another candidate. The poll carries a margin of error of ±2.8%.

Portland Press-Herald

The race accelerated after former Democratic nominee Graham Platner announced on July 8 that he was withdrawing following a sexual-assault allegation he denies. Jackson, a former state Senate president and logger, emerged as the clear front-runner among a crowded Democratic field, securing overwhelming delegate support at county caucuses and effectively eliminating his rivals before the state convention. He is expected to be formally nominated at the Democratic convention in Bangor on Saturday.

New York Times

• Jackson vs. Collins: 49% – 46% (poll)

Portland Press-Herald

• Undecided/Other: 5%

Portland Press-Herald

• Favorable opinions: 37% of respondents view Jackson favorably, 32% unfavorably; 35% view Collins favorably, 53% unfavorably.

Portland Press-Herald

• Governor’s race (contextual): 49% support Democrat Hannah Pingree, 35% Republican Bobby Charles, 6% independent Rick Bennett.

Portland Press-Herald

• The Jackson campaign acknowledged the “water bottle incident” but asserted the bottle was thrown away from the room and struck no one, citing an eyewitness, state Senator Mark Lawrence.

CNN

• Collins’ office highlighted her record of delivering federal dollars to Maine, noting that 53% of Mainers rate her “good or very good” on that metric.

Portland Press-Herald

Accounts of the water-bottle incident diverge: the female legislator who raised the alarm said Jackson aimed the bottle at her, while eyewitness Mark Lawrence testified the bottle was tossed away from everyone and struck no one. No formal investigation or legal finding has been reported, and Jackson has not faced criminal charges.

CNN

• “This moment calls for a rabble-rouser.” — Jennifer DeChant

CNN

• “I think he’s a good guy… He’s the real deal.” — David Farmer, a longtime veteran of Maine politics

CNN

The narrow poll margin positions the Jackson-Collins contest as one of the most closely watched Senate races of the 2026 cycle, with Democrats viewing Collins’s seat as a pivotal pickup for control of the upper chamber. Jackson’s temperament, highlighted by the water-bottle episode and related criticisms, could influence swing voters and party unity as the November election approaches.

Portland Press-Herald

The Democratic nominating convention in Bangor is scheduled for this weekend, where Jackson is expected to secure the party’s Senate nomination. The general election will be held in November, with both campaigns likely to intensify messaging around policy achievements and personal conduct.

New York Times