Iowa Farm Income Plummets, Raising Stakes for 2026 State Races

Net farm income in Iowa has fallen 53 percent between 2022 and 2024, while row-crop producers face a third consecutive year in which production costs exceed crop prices. Corn production costs have risen 37 percent since 2021 and soybean costs 36 percent over the same period. The downturn coincides with the 2026 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests, prompting Democrats and Republicans to frame farm economics as a central campaign issue.

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The sector’s prolonged weakness follows three years of low commodity prices, elevated input costs, and trade uncertainty, including the impact of China’s retaliatory tariffs. Iowa’s political landscape has been a Republican stronghold; President Donald Trump carried the state by about 13 percentage points in 2024, after winning it in 2016 and expanding his margin in 2020.

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• Net farm income: -53 % (2022 -> 2024).

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• Corn production cost increase: +37 % (since 2021).

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• Soybean production cost increase: +36 % (since 2021).

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• Agricultural contribution to state economy: $51.5 billion (~19 % of GDP).

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• Polling for governor: Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by an average of 5 points; Fox poll shows 53 % vs 44 %, New York Times/Siena poll 48 % vs 47 %.

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• Polling for Senate: Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are effectively tied; Fox poll 50 % vs 46 % (Turek lead), Siena and Cygnal polls give Hinson a narrow edge.

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• Prediction-market odds (Kalshi): Sand favored at roughly 63 % probability of victory; Hinson holds a slight advantage over Turek.

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Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ashley Hinson has positioned herself as a defender of producers, promoting the “Save Our Bacon Act” to counter what she describes as burdens from out-of-state regulations such as California’s Proposition 12.

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Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek, through his “Farmers for Turek” coalition, contends that Republican policies have “squeezed” farmers via rising input costs, market consolidation, and the absence of a new Farm Bill.

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• “Iowa farmers shouldn’t have to work twice as hard just to fall further behind. This report confirms what farmers have been saying for years: we’re paying more, earning less, and getting squeezed from every direction, with no help from our leaders,” — Dave Muhlbauer, Sand's nominee for lieutenant governor

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• “Thus far, although some of the messaging in the various races-gubernatorial, Senate, Congressional-has dealt with higher costs, not too much has focused specifically on farm costs,” — Timothy Hagle, associate professor at the University of Iowa

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The intensity of the gubernatorial and Senate contests is expected to increase as candidates sharpen their positions on agricultural policy and as voters assess the ongoing economic strain on Iowa’s farm sector.

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