Full Breakdown
U.S. Labor Force Participation Hits Record Low as 105.8 Million Adults Remain Out of Work
7/22/2026, 7:58:57 PM
Record NILF Figures in June 2026
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reports that the number of Americans age 16 and older who are “not in the labor force” (NILF) rose to a historic 105.8 million in June 2026, up by 832,000 from the previous month. This total exceeds the peaks recorded during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. Labor-force participation fell to 59 % in June, the lowest level since September 2021.
Demographic Breakdown and Contributing Factors
Retirees constitute the largest segment, accounting for roughly 45-50 % of the NILF population, with many having reached the traditional retirement age of 65. About 5.3 million individuals (5 % of NILFs) are classified as discouraged workers who are not actively seeking employment. An estimated 23.3 million adults are on long-term illness, disability, or other benefit programs.
Prime-age men dominate the recent surge: Nicholas Eberstadt estimates roughly 7 million men aged 25-54 have left the labor force, while about 3.5 million women are in a comparable “dropout” category—neither working nor looking for work, often without children or a spouse at home.
Expert Commentary on Underlying Causes
Nicholas Eberstadt, Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute, attributes the male “flight from work” to a combination of cultural and policy factors rather than demographic aging alone. He notes that European and Japanese societies, despite similar age structures, are seeing rising participation rates, suggesting that the U.S. pattern is not inevitable.
Eberstadt also highlights the “sprawl of disability programs” as a “blind spot” that allows individuals to fall through administrative cracks, complicating efforts to track and address labor-force disengagement. Looking ahead, he warns that rapid AI integration could displace workers lacking marketable skills, echoing concerns that a universal basic income (UBI) might exacerbate disengagement rather than mitigate it.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We’ve got a big problem…with the flight from work of prime-age men. And what’s been carrying the overall prime-age labor force participation has been the strong involvement of women, not men,” — Nicholas Eberstadt, leading labor economist
- “Very roughly speaking, there are about 7 million of these men who are out of the labor force for the 25-to 54-year-olds,” — Nicholas Eberstadt, leading labor economist
- “These are the healthiest, best educated Americans that have ever lived on the planet,” — Nicholas Eberstadt, leading labor economist
- “They’ve also displaced a lot of labor for people who don’t have skills. It looks like we’re going to be on that same track with AI, wherever it goes in the next 18 months or 10 years,” — Nicholas Eberstadt, leading labor economist
