Full Breakdown
3M Open Preview: Course, Player Form, and Betting Landscape
7/23/2026, 4:12:34 AM
Core Event – Upcoming 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities
The PGA Tour’s 3M Open returns to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, a suburb about 15 miles from Minneapolis–Saint Paul. The tournament begins this week on a par-71 layout with water on 12 of the 18 holes and large, undulating greens.
Background & Context – Course Characteristics and Historical Scoring
TPC Twin Cities measures roughly 7,200 yards in play, though it is officially listed at 7,451 yards. Players can shorten holes by cutting corners, often yielding lower scores. Historically, the winning total has hovered around 20 under par, and the event has never required a playoff.
Player Form – Statistical Snapshot of Leading Contenders
- Jin-young Ghim – 19th in birdies, 124th in putting; 10th tee-to-green, 11th greens-in-regulation.
- Matt Kohles – Fourth-best approach-shot metric, leads in greens-in-regulation; T-3 at John Deere Classic, recent Korn Ferry win.
- Matt Suber – Top-15 for fantasy points and birdie-or-better; three top-10s in his last eight starts.
- Will Knapp – 10th in birdie-or-better, fourth in strokes-gained off the tee; missed three of four recent cuts, dealing with a wrist/thumb injury.
- Scottie Scheffler – First event of the season, four top-10 finishes, focal point of the “Without Scheffler” market.
- Hideki Matsuyama – Active streak of 28 consecutive cuts; odds –300 to make the cut, +2,800 to win.
- Keita Kitayama – +1,800 on the “Without Scheffler” market.
- Former champions Lee Hodges, Tony Finau, and Cameron Champ also round out the field.
Data & Statistics – Yardage, Par, Odds, and Recent Results
| Metric | Detail |
|---|---|
| Course length (official) | 7,451 yd (effective ~7,200 yd) |
| Par | 71 |
| Winning score (historical) | Approx. –20 |
| Water hazards | 12 of 18 holes |
| USA winner odds | –295; “No” +220 |
| European winner odds | +950; “No” –2,200 |
| Playoff odds | +400; “No” –650 |
| Matsuyama cut odds | –300; win +2,800 |
| Kitayama “Without Scheffler” odds | +1,800 |
Official Statements & Responses – Tournament and Betting Market Commentary
Organizers note the layout allows corner-cutting, creating abundant birdie opportunities when penalty areas are avoided. Betting analysts say a score of at least 15 under will likely be required to win, and they assign a modest premium to a playoff outcome.
Why It Matters – Betting Implications and Potential Outcomes
The short effective yardage and water hazards favor high-scoring performances. Players with strong tee-to-green and approach metrics—such as Kohles and Ghim—are positioned to capitalize. Those struggling with recent form or injuries, like Knapp, face heightened risk. The odds structure shows a bias toward an American champion, while the “Without Scheffler” market offers value for Kitayama and Matsuyama.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps – Yardage Discrepancy
One source lists the course at 7,451 yd, another at 7,431 yd. Both agree effective play can be closer to 7,200 yd due to corner-cutting, leaving the exact official yardage unclear.
What’s Next – Tournament Kickoff and Early-Round Outlook
The 3M Open opens this week, with the first round on Thursday. Early forecasts suggest players who navigate the water-laden holes while maintaining aggressive ball-striking will dominate the leaderboard and shape short-term betting movements.
