Full Breakdown
Steve Hilton’s Ad Targets Persuadable California Voters
7/23/2026, 6:43:01 AM
Hilton’s Direct Appeal to Anti-Trump Electors
On April 7, 2026, Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton—a former Fox News commentator endorsed by President Donald Trump—released a full-page newspaper advertisement in the *San Francisco Chronicle*, the *Los Angeles Times* and the *Sacramento Bee*.
Background: A GOP Campaign in a Deep-Blue State
California’s electorate heavily favors Democrats; registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly two-to-one. Hilton entered the race after receiving Trump’s endorsement in April, positioning himself as a problem-solver rather than an ideologue. His campaign emphasizes “affordability” and a “Califordable” plan aimed at working-class Latino voters, while acknowledging the state’s “affordability crisis.”
Poll Landscape Shows Wide Gap
Multiple polls illustrate Hilton’s long-shot status:
- A Public Policy Institute of California poll released the week before the ad found 61 % of likely voters supporting Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra versus 36 % for Hilton.
- A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted shortly before the June primary showed 52 % for Becerra and 31 % for Hilton, with the Democrat leading across gender, age and racial groups and in every region except the North Coast and Sierra Nevada.
- An internal campaign poll cited by the candidate’s spokesperson indicates that about 75 % of “persuadable” voters dissatisfied with California’s direction did not vote for Trump.
Official Campaign Position
President Trump, in an April Truth Social post, called Hilton a “truly fine man.”
Conflicting Poll Figures & Data Gaps
The 61 % / 36 % gap reported by the Public Policy Institute contrasts with the 52 % / 31 % gap reported by the Berkeley Institute, reflecting differing methodologies and sample frames. Neither poll provides a detailed breakdown of how many respondents identified as “anti-Trump” but willing to consider a Republican candidate, leaving a gap in understanding the ad’s target demographic.
Verbatim Quote
“The ‘Fox News guy.’ Endorsed by Trump. But this election is not about who you hate in Washington. It’s about what you love here.” — Matt Ciepielowski, Hilton’s campaign manager
